Betting picks for every team total in Week 8

Here's a look at my picks and confidence level for every team total in Week 8 of the NFL season:

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (HOU -7.5 / 44.5)

Dolphins' team total: 17.5 points
Pick: Under (-138)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

I faded Brock Osweiler at home last week fresh off a big game, and I'll do it again for his first road start of the season. Miami's receiving group is thin, and Osweiler won't be getting any sort of revenge on his former team in this one.

Texans' team total: 26.5 points
Pick: Under (+100)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

With Deshaun Watson at less than 100 percent, Houston's offense has only topped the 22-point mark once in seven games. This matchup doesn't have a shootout feel, and I don't think the Texans will need to be all that aggressive offensively.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (PHI -3 / 42)

Eagles' team total: 22.5 points
Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐​​​​​​​

It was a swing and a miss last weekend backing the Jaguars' defense, which has now given up 90 combined points across the team's last three contests. Let's try this again.

Jaguars' team total: 19.5 points
Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

I'd have a stronger lean on this one if Blake Bortles wasn't benched in the second half last week against Houston. His leash is short and I expect a conservative game plan, but I still think the Eagles' defense is overrated beyond basic defensive metrics.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (PK / 42.5)

Redskins' team total: 20.5 points
Pick: Over (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

I'm feeling a huge letdown for the Giants' defense on a short week. Yes, they only allowed 23 points to the potent Falcons, but they were still gashed for nearly 500 yards.

Giants' team total: 20.5 points
Pick: Over (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New York's offense has been one of my favorites to zig-zag on. The approach is simple: Wait until the media questions the play-calling or leadership, and then watch the Giants go off for 27 points in a heartbreaking loss.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (DET -3 / 49.5)

Seahawks' team total: 23.5 points
Pick: Over (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Hey, Russell Wilson is finally getting some protection! The Seahawks are also having more success on the ground, which should bode well against the league's 30th-ranked rush defense. That'll be crucial in setting up the deep ball for a Seattle offense that's averaging 11.2 yards per completion, good for No. 10 in the NFL.

Lions' team total: 25.5 points
Pick: Over (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

The Lions are tapping into their offensive potential, maximizing a well-rounded receiving corps and balancing things out with rookie running back Kerryon Johnson. Meanwhile, I still can't trust Seattle's defense to slow down an above-average offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -4 / 54.5)

Buccaneers' team total: 24.5 points
Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

There's a good chance of rain on Sunday in Cincinnati. And if Tampa Bay's forced to run the ball, good luck trusting a unit that's posted 3.6 yards per carry this season.

Bengals' team total: 30.5 points
Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

The Bengals' offense has trended downward ever since losing tight end Tyler Eifert. Cincinnati's played in three straight unders and the offense mustered just 10 points against a Chiefs defense that hands out points like candy on Halloween. You could say Tampa Bay's the perfect opponent to get back on track against, but it's hard to trust the Bengals after they failed to capitalize on Miami, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears (CHI -7.5 / 45)

Jets' team total: 17.5 points
Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

It's tough for me to invest in Sam Darnold on the road against a good defense. The Bears couldn't tackle in space versus the Dolphins and allowed 38 points to the Patriots, but this is a good time to buy back on the defense at home against a rookie quarterback.

Bears' team total: 27.5 points
Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

I'm a big fan of the under in this game, so it seems fitting to predict the Bears' offense will struggle. Unless Chicago consistently pops explosive plays like it did the past few weeks, 28 is a lot to ask from Mitchell Trubisky.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10 / 53.5)

Broncos' team total: 20.5 points
Pick: Over (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

The Broncos tried to run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline when these teams met in Week 5. It nearly worked until Denver's lead slipped away, forcing the offense to heave the ball and play catch-up. The Broncos figure to play from behind this time as a 10-point underdog against the league's top scoring offense, which could actually be better for garbage-time points.

Chiefs' team total: 32.5 points
Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

I still don't think these numbers for the Chiefs are inflated. The offense hasn't slowed down one bit, and gets a Denver team that's allowed more than 34 points per game in six early starts in Eastern Time under Vance Joseph since the beginning of last season.

Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers (BAL -2 / 43)

Ravens' team total: 22 points
Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐

Road Flacco and the Ravens coming off a gut-wrenching loss? Over, small.

Panthers' team total: 20.5 points
Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Cam Newton is the wild card here. He'll either chop the Ravens up for 200 yards on the ground or get sacked every time the Panthers reach the edge of field-goal range. I'll side with the league's top defense.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -8 / 49)

Browns' team total: 19 points
Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Baker Mayfield is short a couple weapons in the passing game, the play-calling has been horrendous, and there will likely be some rain in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Steelers' defense has held better offenses in check this season and also gets some added rest coming off the bye.

Steelers' team total: 29.5 points
Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

This feels a bit like a revenge spot for Ben Roethlisberger and Co. He turned the ball over four times in wet conditions against Cleveland back in Week 1 and still managed to register 21 points. Meanwhile, the Browns' pass defense has regressed heavily, and that spells trouble against Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (IND -3 / 50.5)

Colts' team total: 26.5 points
Pick: Over (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

The Colts' offense has been tough to read this season, consistently putting up points despite the yards per play being less than ideal. Based on the likely style of this matchup, there should be no shortage of passing opportunities for Andrew Luck and the offense.

Raiders' team total: 23.5 points
Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Oakland was already chucking the football plenty, and now there's no Marshawn Lynch to take handoffs. This could be one of the sneaky-good games of the day with more offense than anticipated.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (SF -1 / 42.5)

49ers' team total: 20.5 points
Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Nothing screams aesthetics quite like the C.J. Beathard-led 49ers against Josh Rosen and the Cardinals. At least one offense has actually looked like it's trying to score points this season, and it's this one.

Cardinals' team total: 20.5 points
Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

The 49ers were the latest punching bag for the Rams' offense last weekend, but at least held L.A. to 5.4 yards per play. Momentum, all the way. And while Mike McCoy is gone as the Cardinals' offensive coordinator, that unit needs a lot more than coaching turnover.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (LA -9.5 / 56.5)

Packers' team total: 22.5 points
Pick: Over (-138)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

There isn't a single quarterback in the league I'd want as an underdog in a potentially high-scoring game more than Aaron Rodgers. There's also a good chance Rodgers will face a prevent defense throughout the second half.

Rams' team total: 33.5 points
Pick: Over (-138)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

The Rams were held to 5.4 yards per play last week and still scored 39 despite playing without their top receiver. What a time to be alive.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (PK / 52.5)

Saints' team total: 26.5 points
Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

The Saints get their second straight road game against a Vikings defense that might have Everson Griffen back. Minnesota's defense is far from elite, but this is the week the unit will put on a show at home in prime time.

Vikings' team total: 26.5 points
Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New Orleans made a deal for Eli Apple and even looked good over the last two weeks, although its offensive competition hasn't been that stiff. Meanwhile, the offense is humming, and I'd bet Adam Thielen over regardless of the number for his receiving-yards prop bet.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (NE -10 / 44.5)

Patriots' team total: 29.5 points
Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New England's been dominant as a double-digit favorite in recent history, covering the spread in 12 of 15 and averaging 31.2 points in those situations. Still, Buffalo's defense got its bad game out of the way last weekend at Indianapolis, and I expect a rebound.

Bills' team total: 14.5 points
Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

There's still nothing to suggest Buffalo's offense is ready to turn the corner. Also, the Bills are going to give it another go with Derek Anderson, who has literally 18 days of familiarity with the playbook. Good luck with that!

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.