Most surprising and disappointing AFC teams in 2018
The NFL's regular season is unpredictable, a chaotic tapestry unlike any other major American sports league. The 2018 campaign was especially stocked full of shocking falls from grace for supposed contenders and unexpected rises from unheralded teams.
Here, we go division by division to highlight the most surprising overachievers and biggest disappointments from the last 17 weeks of gridiron action:
AFC I NFC
AFC West
Biggest surprise: Los Angeles Chargers
What went right?: The 2018 Chargers have finally fulfilled preseason expectations after years of disappointment, thanks to a career year from Philip Rivers, Pro Bowl seasons from Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen, and a top-10 defense. Head coach Anthony Lynn has bounced back from a forgettable rookie year, masterfully guiding the Chargers this season despite being hit with major early injuries, most notably to Joey Bosa and Hunter Henry. Perhaps most importantly to the health of Chargers fans, though, was the emergence of kicker Michael Badgley, who put to bed L.A.'s insane run of bad luck at the position.
Looking ahead: This team is built for the present. Fair or not, the Chargers must win in this postseason. They've missed the playoffs in seven of the last eight years, a ridiculous streak considering the play under center and overall talent level of past iterations. Moreover, the Chargers' future in L.A. could rely on continuing their momentum into next season ahead of their stadium move in 2020, with the Rams unlikely to fall off anytime soon.
Biggest disappointment: Oakland Raiders
What went wrong?: Where to start? As feared, Jon Gruden's dated offensive scheme failed to bring the best out of Derek Carr, causing speculation the quarterback could follow departed stars Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack out the door. Mack and Cooper couldn't have played better with their new teams, putting even more pressure on the Raiders to nail the picks they received for them. The argument can be made Oakland will be better in the future because of both moves, but the team would've undeniably been more competitive than 4-11 this season if both had stayed.
Looking ahead: The Raiders have struggled to replace general manager Reggie McKenzie after he was forced to watch his two most successful draft picks depart and then shown the door, as GM candidates are reportedly wary of essentially working under the head coach. Although Oakland has an enviable stable of picks after Gruden dismantled the top of the team's roster, the value of the acquired first-rounders could fall even further with the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys making the playoffs. Carr is likely to return, but his long-term future is far from secure and Gruden could potentially look to bring in his guy, which has historically been a reliable veteran whose best skill is protecting the football. The team should be focusing on how best to retool for next season and getting a GM who can rein in Gruden's worst tendencies, but the lack of a home for 2019 hangs over the franchise.
AFC North
Biggest surprise: Baltimore Ravens
What went right?: After the Ravens looked down for the count at 4-5 following a Week 9 loss to the Steelers, the team turned to Lamar Jackson. The rookie phenom kickstarted the offense in a way Joe Flacco, who went down with an injury, couldn't muster, as the Ravens' running game exploded for 230.4 yards per game in Jackson's first five starts. This grind-it-out style of offense was the perfect compliment to the team's defense, which tops the league in both total yardage and scoring.
Looking ahead: Baltimore is one win away from its first playoff appearance since 2014, but the switch to Jackson should mean less pressure to make a deep run. John Harbaugh's future appears secure after the team announced he will return in 2019 and that extension talks have already begun. Cutting Flacco will incur a $16-million dead money hit, so the Ravens are reportedly hoping to trade him, though what return he could get with his bloated contract remains to be seen. Jackson has cemented his place as the QB of the future, but Baltimore can't rest on its laurels. The young pivot needs more weapons if he's to develop as a passer.
Biggest disappointment: Pittsburgh Steelers
What went wrong?: Outside of the Le'Veon Bell saga, inconsistency, poor discipline, and struggles against far less talented teams once again plagued Mike Tomlin's squad. James Conner was one of the few pieces for the Steelers that managed to exceed or even meet expectations. Pittsburgh gave away the fifth-most yards through penalties; Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown looked out of sync for a significant part of the season, with the receiver leading the NFL in targeted passes resulting in an interception (11); and the Steelers' pass defense ranked 21st in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, likely caused by the lack of development by young defensive backs such as Artie Burns, Sean Davis, and 2018 first-rounder Terrell Edmunds.
Looking ahead: Pittsburgh's ownership is famous for its unmatched patience with coaches. However, if the team is sitting at home in January, Mike Tomlin will be feeling intense heat, as the Steelers lost to or tied with teams they should've easily taken care of, such as the Raiders and the Hue Jackson-led Browns. Roethlisberger has teased retiring before, but if Tomlin is gone, the QB might follow. Regardless of their futures, Pittsburgh needs to find a way back to its days of defensive dominance after coordinator Keith Butler's unit tied for 26th in total takeaways.
AFC South
Biggest surprise: Indianapolis Colts
What went right?: The Colts produced a near-perfect second half to the season after starting 1-5. Andrew Luck's arm strength has returned and he's put up career numbers in Frank Reich's scheme. GM Chris Ballard's rookie class is among the league's best, as Quenton Nelson - who's turned the Colts' much-maligned offensive line into an elite unit - and Darius Leonard are legitimate All-Pro candidates. Indy's top free-agent addition, Eric Ebron, has the third-most touchdown receptions in the league (12), while Matt Eberflus' young and mostly anonymous defense emerged as a fringe top-ten unit.
Looking ahead: All of a sudden, Indy looks like one of the AFC's up-and-coming powerhouses. Luck and Reich are a match made in heaven, and the QB should have MVPs in his future. Even if the Colts can't beat the Tennessee Titans in a win-and-you're-in game and become just the third team to start 1-5 and make the playoffs since the merger, they'll have the most cap space in the NFL this offseason and an extra second-round pick to round out their roster for a 2019 run.
Biggest disappointment: Jacksonville Jaguars
What went wrong?: What a difference a year makes. Unsurprisingly - except, apparently, for the Jaguars' staff and management - Blake Bortles regressed after appearing to take a leap forward during last year's run to the AFC title game. However, Jacksonville simply wasn't the QB-friendly environment it was a year ago. The team's feared pass rush evaporated as quickly as it appeared, falling from second to 28th in sacks, and Leonard Fournette only suited up for eight games, which meant the Jaguars couldn't grind out victories while keeping the training wheels on Bortles. Jalen Ramsey spent the offseason firing shots at seemingly everyone in the league, but, due to in large part to the defense falling off around him, the All-Pro was forced to eat crow for much of the year.
Looking ahead: It might get worse before it gets better for the Jaguars, as only the Eagles have less projected cap space in 2019. Major moves can be made to improve the team's poor financial outlook, but Jacksonville could be hamstrung by its decision to extend Bortles this past offseason, as the team will incur a $16.5-million dead money hit if they cut him after the year. Finding a new franchise pivot should be priority No. 1, but a close second for the Jaguars should be repairing their relationship with Ramsey after trade rumors surfaced, leading the cornerback to demand that extension talks begin to prove the team's commitment to him.
AFC East
Biggest surprise: Miami Dolphins
What went right?: The East, as usual, was among the most predictable divisions in all of football. However, calling the Dolphins a default pick would be an injustice to a team that stayed in playoff contention right until the penultimate game of the regular season despite very limited expectations at the beginning of the year. The Miami Miracle was by far the highlight of the Dolphins' season, but it wasn't a one-off. Adam Gase's squad came up clutch in 2018, going 7-1 in single-possession games despite a rash of injuries to the offensive line. Meanwhile, Frank Gore produced one of the feel-good stories of the year by enjoying his most efficient season since 2009.
Looking ahead: Ryan Tannehill wasn't bad in 2018, but he wasn't good either. It's the story of his career so far, and with a $26.6-million cap hit in 2019, this chapter might be closing for the QB. The futures of both head coach Adam Gase and vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum are also in question. Miami has been reluctant to clean house completely in years past, but will the fan base accept another attempt to paper over the cracks?
Biggest disappointment: New England Patriots
What went wrong?: Disappointment is relative. The Patriots won the AFC East, got to double-digit wins, and can secure a first-round bye in Week 17. However, it wasn't a typically dominant season from New England, which endured embarrassing losses to the Titans, Dolphins, and Detroit Lions. Tom Brady finally showed signs of decline, Rob Gronkowski was plagued by injuries, and Josh Gordon received another indefinite suspension. Also, the defense relied heavily on turnovers, ranking sixth in forced takeaways, and could be exposed come playoff time.
Looking ahead: Few will be surprised if New England pulls it all together and goes on another championship run, but that's arguably due to the team's history rather than any evidence from its play this year. Although questions swirl around weapons like Gronkowski and Gordon, Brady's future will be the main topic of conversation for every offseason from now until he retires; how Bill Belichick approaches the QB position in the offseason could be the biggest indicator of how long he believes this current iteration of the team can last.
Contract statistics courtesy: Over The Cap