3 reasons why the Rams will win Super Bowl LIII
The Los Angeles Rams accelerated their window of contention by going on a major spending spree last summer, and it has clearly paid off. Buoyed by the additions of Brandin Cooks, Ndamukong Suh, and Marcus Peters, among several others, the Rams cruised to the NFC West title and look to knock off the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII.
Here are three reasons why the Rams will lift the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 3.
Rams' 11 personnel will exploit mismatches
Depending on how closely you've paid attention this season, you're either sick of hearing about 11 personnel or have little idea about what it means. It simply refers to a grouping that includes three wide receivers and, perhaps more importantly, one running back and one tight end, who form the two-digit number. The Rams use this personnel grouping 96 percent of the time, often with receivers bunched on one side of the field, and it's key for them in establishing play-action, jet sweeps, off-tackle runs, and several other staples of their dynamic offense.
Although the Rams line up in their base formation more often than any other team in the NFL, their usage of 11 personnel enables them to boast arguably the NFL's most unpredictable offense. This play against the Dallas Cowboys best illustrates how the grouping establishes a dangerous running game, spearheaded by Todd Gurley and, more recently, C.J. Anderson.
Josh Reynolds (No. 83) sprints into the backfield, setting up a potential jet sweep while Jared Goff sets up a handoff to Gurley. Reynolds' motion freezes the Cowboys' defense, allowing the offensive line to maul an unsuspecting defensive line and creating a massive hole for Gurley to sprint through for the touchdown. On any given play, Reynolds, Cooks, and Robert Woods are threats to run a jet sweep, making it impossible for the opponent to key in on a single ball carrier. The Rams will use this formation to exploit mismatches, and we could see Cooks or Woods sprint to the outside to beat a slower Patriots linebacker.
Los Angeles ran play-action on a league-high 34 percent of offensive snaps, with Goff finding Cooks, Woods, Reynolds, and Gurley open after selling the run in 11 personnel. Goff relies on the Rams wreaking chaos pre-snap to open up the passing game and it's this personnel grouping that will dictate whether the Rams get Cooks, Woods, and Gurley working to their fullest capacity against a balanced Patriots defense.
Donald, Suh will get to Brady at key moments
Bill Belichick revealed what we already knew during his media availability last Tuesday when he called Aaron Donald "unblockable." Donald is the heavy favorite to win his second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year Award. Though the Patriots' offensive line was arguably the best unit in the NFL, a fully engaged Donald alongside Ndamukong Suh - who is playing his best football of the year - may prove an insurmountable obstacle to victory.
Donald's swim move is simply unfair and his uncanny ability to time his burst off the snap makes him a nightmare to block. The Rams superstar won an NFL-best 46 percent of his pass rushes, defeating edge rushers Robert Quinn and Jadeveon Clowney. And the Patriots cannot afford to block him with multiple linemen because of Suh's menacing play, especially in the run game.
It will likely take a group effort to contain Donald - and to a lesser extent, Suh - but Patriots left guard Joe Thuney and center David Andrews will probably be tasked with slowing down the Rams' star pairing. Thuney graded out as the fourth-best pass-blocking guard in the NFL, while Andrews was rated as the eighth-best pass-blocking center, according to Pro Football Focus. Affording Tom Brady a clean pocket will be key for New England, but it's easier said than done with Donald destroying everyone in sight.
Rams will win the special-teams battle
Field-position battles aren't the sexiest element of playoff football, but they might decide what should be one of the closest Super Bowls in recent memory. Both the Patriots and Rams put greater emphasis on special teams than most clubs, and Johnny Hekker, Greg Zuerlein, and JoJo Natson will be called upon when needed.
Hekker was named a second-team All-Pro in 2018. Some consider him the best punter in the NFL, and Bill Belichick's raved about the 28-year-old. The Rams posted 43.9 net yards per punt, fifth-best in the NFL, and Hekker will be tasked with trapping the Patriots inside their own 20.
Zuerlein's brilliance was already on display during the NFC title game and the man nicknamed "Legatron" could make his mark on history with a few clutch field goals. Few kickers in the NFL can hit from long range better than Zuerlein, and if the Rams are stopped early in drives, the veteran should be able to put up points regardless.
Natson and Sam Shields haven't compiled a large enough sample size as returners, but both players possess the speed and field vision required to break off a huge run to the house. Winning the often overlooked third phase of the game will be essential in order to topple the Patriots, and the Rams are one of the few teams with the personnel to do it.