Madden NFL 20 simulation: Are the Cowboys' title odds worth another look?
Congratulations, Dallas Cowboys fans: Your team won Super Bowl 54.
Earlier this week, CBS Sports' Will Brinson published his fourth annual Madden simulation to predict the Super Bowl winner for the following NFL season. This year, the game awarded America's Team with a 27-10 Super Bowl 54 victory over the Cleveland Browns.
As for the actual Super Bowl, the Cowboys are currently 20-1 at Westgate LV SuperBook to win the title.
They're not quite Biff's sports almanac from "Back to the Future II," but is there enough predictive power in these Madden simulations?
Madden NFL simulation results (2016-18)
While Brinson's simulations may not be the dreaded Madden cover curse, they're not blessings, either. Only one of the six teams predicted to reach the Super Bowl over the last three years has made it, while two of them failed to reach the playoffs altogether.
| Year | Team | Record | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Falcons* | 11-5 | Y | Y |
| 2016 | Steelers | 11-5 | Y | N |
| 2017 | Falcons* | 10-6 | Y | N |
| 2017 | Chargers | 9-7 | N | N |
| 2018 | Jaguars* | 5-11 | N | N |
| 2018 | Seahawks | 10-6 | Y | N |
*picked to win Super Bowl
The Cowboys are also predicted to win the NFC East, but division winners haven't fared much better in Brinson's simulations. In the last three years, the first-place finishers have been accurately predicted just seven of 24 times.
Of the 36 playoff teams since 2016, Madden has correctly called 19 of them - just over 50 percent, which is hardly enough to put your money behind.
What's more, Madden is calling for the New England Patriots to miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 season. Tom Brady and Co. are 6-1 at the SuperBook to miss the field if you're feeling adventurous.
Oddly enough, however, Madden has excelled in predicting the NFC and AFC East, which may bode well for the Cowboys - who are currently 3-2 to win their division - and portend doom for the Patriots. Two of Madden's three predicted winners in both the NFC and AFC East have claimed the division crown, and all of them have made the playoffs. This year, the Buffalo Bills - currently at 8-1 to win the AFC East - are predicted to win their division.
The Cowboys also received love for the MVP award. The Madden simulation had Ezekiel Elliott taking home this year's honors behind a 2,000-yard rushing season. Elliott is 80-1 to win the MVP this year, though he'd have to report to camp first amid a contract holdout.
Zeke's elite status is ironically the biggest red flag in backing the 'Boys based off Madden's predictions. The video game's rating system tends to overstate the difference between elite running backs and replacement-level ones, especially those behind a stellar offensive line.
We've seen that play out before in Dallas, where DeMarco Murray rushed for an absurd 1,845 yards in 2014 and Darren McFadden racked up 1,089 yards in 2015, a year before Elliott joined the team.
Elliott might need to break the all-time single-season rushing record to snap Madden's 0-for-3 stretch on MVP winners (Aaron Rodgers in 2016, Dak Prescott in 2017, Philip Rivers in 2018). But it's likely up to Prescott to deliver Madden's preseason title promise for the first time.