How to bet coaches in the NFL preseason
Bettors looking for an edge in the NFL preseason needn't look past the sidelines to find one of the biggest factors: Coaches.
To some head coaches, preseason football is as meaningless as it is to most fans. To others, it's a worthwhile four- or five-game stretch for simulating regular-season situations - even if the other team isn't putting up a real fight.
The betting records for the longest-tenured coaches tend to normalize at around 50 percent against the spread over time, but some coaches' records can provide real insight into their teams' preseason betting values:
| COACH | ATS RECORD | O/U |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Belichick | 39-37-6 (51.3%) | 40-40-2 |
| Andy Reid | 38-39-4 (49.4%) | 44-36-1 |
| Pete Carroll | 33-16 (67.3%) | 23-26 |
| John Harbaugh | 30-15 (66.7%) | 20-24-1 |
| Mike Tomlin | 24-26 (48%) | 20-30 |
| Jon Gruden | 18-12-3 (60%) | 15-18 |
| Ron Rivera | 17-14-1 (54.8%) | 18-14 |
| Mike Zimmer | 14-7 (66.7%) | 8-12-1 |
| Bill O'Brien | 11-7-1 (61.1%) | 6-13 |
| Jay Gruden | 11-9 (55%) | 7-13 |
| Jason Garrett | 11-21-1 (34.4%) | 14-16-3 |
| Bruce Arians | 10-9-2 (52.6%) | 11-10 |
| Doug Marrone | 8-8-1 (50%) | 7-10 |
| Doug Pederson | 7-5 (58.3%) | 4-8 |
| Pat Shurmur | 6-7 (46.2%) | 6-6-1 |
| Adam Gase | 5-7 (41.7%) | 8-3-1 |
| Frank Reich | 4-0 (100%) | 1-3 |
| Sean McVay | 4-4 (50%) | 3-4-1 |
| Dan Quinn | 4-12 (25%) | 5-10-1 |
| Matt Nagy | 3-2 (60%) | 4-1 |
| Kyle Shanahan | 3-4-1 (42.9%) | 5-3 |
| Anthony Lynn | 3-5 (37.5%) | 4-3-1 |
| Sean McDermott | 3-5 (37.5%) | 3-5 |
| Matt Patricia | 1-3 (25%) | 3-1 |
| Mike Vrabel | 0-4 (0%) | 2-2 |
| Vic Fangio | 0-0 (0%) | 0-0 |
| Brian Flores | 0-0 (0%) | 0-0 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | 0-0 (0%) | 0-0 |
| Freddie Kitchens | 0-0 (0%) | 0-0 |
| Matt LaFleur | 0-0 (0%) | 0-0 |
| Zac Taylor | 0-0 (0%) | 0-0 |
Data courtesy of Odds Shark
With 60-plus percent winning percentages against the spread, the Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll (33-16 ATS) and the Baltimore Ravens' John Harbaugh (30-15 ATS) stand out among the NFL's veteran coaches. Carroll has gone 4-0 in three of the last seven preseasons and Harbaugh has won 13 straight.
Parsing through their comments over the years, it's clear both believe the preseason builds character, reveals the resolve of a team - all the great offseason cliches. Whether or not there's any truth to it, their records reflect their philosophies.
On the other end of the spectrum is Dallas Cowboys coach Jason Garrett (11-21-1 ATS), whose disinterest in the preseason has actually drawn criticism for how it affects his team in Week 1. He has just two winning records in eight preseasons with the Cowboys.
The Atlanta Falcons' Dan Quinn (4-12 ATS) - whose backups lost 14-10 to the Denver Broncos in Thursday's Hall of Fame Game - has recently opted to rest healthy stars for entire preseasons. He's lost nine straight in the preseason and has the worst record among coaches with at least five games.
Week 3 presents a potential betting inefficiency, as starters typically play close to a full half in the NFL's "dress rehearsal" for the regular season. All of the usual preseason darlings excel during this week, including Harbaugh (8-3) Carroll (6-3), and Minnesota Vikings coach Mike Zimmer (5-0).
The league's best bosses shine in Week 3: The top nine active coaches by regular-season wins are all .500 or better, led by New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton (10-3). Interestingly, Payton is 2-11 in Week 4 - considered the least important preseason game - and other top coaches also tend to struggle that week.