How much each starting NFL QB is worth to the point spread
When it comes to point spreads, how valuable is each starting NFL quarterback? Heading into Week 1, Aaron Rodgers tops the list. He's worth 7.5 points to a spread, followed by Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson, who all count seven points toward a betting line.
The biggest factors here are the overall talent levels of the starting QB and the same team's backup. As we saw when Andrew Luck suddenly retired, the Indianapolis Colts moved from +3 to +7 in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Luck himself was worth more than four points to the spread, but the Colts had a capable backup in new starter Jacoby Brissett.
Here is the complete list of NFL starting quarterbacks and their impact on the point spread.
| Quarterback | Spread Value |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | -7.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | -7 |
| Tom Brady | -7 |
| Russell Wilson | -7 |
| Carson Wentz | -6.5 |
| Philip Rivers | -6.5 |
| Drew Brees | -6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | -5.5 |
| Matt Ryan | -5.5 |
| Jared Goff | -5 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | -4 |
| Cam Newton | -4 |
| Dak Prescott | -4 |
| Matthew Stafford | -3.5 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | -3.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | -2.5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | -2.5 |
| Nick Foles | -2.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | -2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | -1.5 |
| Jameis Winston | -1.5 |
| Sam Darnold | -1.5 |
| Joe Flacco | -1 |
| Josh Allen | -1 |
| Derek Carr | -1 |
| Marcus Mariota | -1 |
| Kyler Murray | -1 |
| Andy Dalton | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 0 |
| Eli Manning | +1 |
Notes
• It's hard to believe Eli Manning is a two-time Super Bowl champion. Manning is the only quarterback whose team would be a lesser underdog if he weren't under center. Many believe the Giants should waste little time turning to rookie Daniel Jones, and the oddsmakers agree.
• It's interesting that Carson Wentz is worth close to a touchdown considering the Eagles won a Super Bowl without him. The difference this year is that Josh McCown came out of retirement to back up Wentz, while the more capable Nick Foles is now in Jacksonville.
• Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first two players taken in the 2015 draft, but neither quarterback has lived up to expectations. Their impact on the point spread for Week 1 backs that up. Winston is worth 1.5 points, while the Titans' spread would move only a point without Mariota in the lineup. Basically, neither quarterback is much of an upgrade over their backup - at least according to oddsmakers.
• Oddsmakers have little regard for Lions QB Matthew Stafford. Stafford is only worth 3.5 points to the spread, which is tied with Bears pivot Mitchell Trubisky. If you're thinking Detroit must have a decent backup, think again. The backup to Stafford is Josh Johnson. It feels like Stafford should be worth more than 3.5 points considering which guy the Lions have behind him.
• The Colts just gave Brissett a two-year, $30 million contract extension. They clearly like Brissett more than the betting market. Even with Luck out of the picture, Brissett is only worth 1.5 points to the spread. Oddsmakers see little difference between Brissett and newly signed backup Brian Hoyer.