Thursday Night Football betting preview: Packers vs. Bears
If Week 1 between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears is anything like last year's opener, bettors might not make it to the second slate of games.
It's been roughly one year since quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers scored 24 unanswered points in the second half to beat their rivals on the first Sunday Night Football game of the season, and the 2019 campaign opens on Thursday with the two NFC North powerhouses.
Here's everything you need to know about the game from a betting perspective.
Line movement
The Bears opened as 3.5-point favorites in April, with a total of 46. Chicago, a popular bet in the futures market this offseason, peaked at -4 over the summer but came down to a steady -3 during the final week of August. That's where the Bears currently are, with the total ticking up a half-point to 46.5.
Betting breakdown
Following a 3-3 start to the 2018 season in Year 1 under head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears quickly became a treasure trove for bettors: Chicago finished the season 9-2, both outright and against the spread.
Green Bay has owned the rivalry of late, however, as it's won eight of the last nine contests played at Soldier Field. Rodgers went into last season at 27-17-1 against the spread in prime-time games but proceeded to go 0-4-1 in five situations in 2018.
The Packers had a couple of notable players limited in practice earlier this week, as cornerback Kevin King and tight end Jimmy Graham are probable with respective injuries; rookie tight end Jace Sternberger was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with an ankle injury.
For Chicago, tight end Trey Burton and defensive lineman Bilal Nichols were both limited earlier in the week. The former, one of quarterback Mitch Trubisky's favorite targets last season, is a game-time decision.
Important trends
Heading into the opener, the situation historically favors the road team.
Teams coming off six or fewer wins and being given points on the road in Week 1 have covered the spread roughly 66% of the time. The Packers, who finished 6-9-1 in 2018, fit this angle.
Player props
Geronimo Allison Over 45.5 receiving yards
Allison will be the primary slot receiver in Green Bay, bookended by Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Allison's matchup is particularly intriguing considering the Bears have to replace some underrated production at nickelback with the departure of Bryce Callahan, who was a Pro Football Focus darling last season. The undrafted wide receiver might not be a household name yet, but with more reps in an offense led by Rodgers, that notoriety could come sooner rather than later. Don't be surprised if this is one of the lower receiving yard totals for Allison this season.
Pick
These are two boom-or-bust teams that could end up on either side of the spectrum by the end of the season, which provides for some serious volatility entering the opener. The spread seems just about right, but the total feels a point or two too low. With Chicago losing its defensive coordinator and having so much turnover success, the Bears are bound for at least some regression. Getting Rodgers on prime time should be a treat, and the "over" is the only play in this situation.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.