NFL Week 4 survivor picks

If you've been following this column's advice, you're definitely through to Week 4. If you haven't been following, well, you're still probably onto Week 4. It's been that kind of season so far.

The upsets slowly started to pick up last week, with the Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing as 4.5- to 6.5-point favorites. Unfortunately, those teams knocked out only 37 people in my pool, with over 1,500 still remaining. Hopefully, there was a larger exodus in your pool.

The field will whittle down eventually. This is the NFL, after all, and big upsets are inevitable.

Until then, let's keep throwing up winners and knocking them out of the park. Onto Week 4...

Safest pick: Los Angeles Rams

There are six teams favored by at least a touchdown this tweek, and 11 by four-plus points.

In all those games except this one, there's a legitimate case to be made for an outright underdog win. Sorry, but there's a better chance your local supermarket gives out free crab legs than there is of Jameis Winston going into Los Angeles and beating the defending NFC champions.

"But it looked like Winston found his groove last week," you might be thinking. Sure, against a New York Giants defense that ranks 32nd (that's last, for those counting) defending the pass this season.

This week, Winston faces a fourth-ranked Los Angeles Rams pass defense. In two games against top-10 pass defenses last season, Winston threw for just 303 yards, with three interceptions and only one touchdown. Tampa lost those contests by a combined 68-22 score.

So what are the Bucs going to do, run the ball? I don't think Sean McVay is sitting poolside right now trying to game plan a way to slow Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones. Tampa's best chance of scoring will come in garbage time.

On the other side of the ball, points are rarely an issue for Jared Goff and the Rams' offense. Since the start of last season, Los Angeles is averaging 36 points per game at home (28 on the road).

Do we feel comfortable that the Bucs' defense - a unit that could be without linebacker Devin White again - will do enough to keep this game close? This is a team that just allowed 32 points to the Giants, with Daniel Jones making his first career start, and Saquon Barkley missing most of the game. Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram ran through Tampa's secondary last week like they were Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. Just imagine how Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods will perform.

The Rams are 20-2 under McVay when favored by at least a field goal, and 14-1 when laying a touchdown or more. Winston, meanwhile, is 1-10 as an away dog since the start of last season, with the lone win coming in Week 2 over a Carolina Panthers team that shares only one similarity with the Rams: The two clubs play the same sport.

Take the Rams, and I'll see you in Week 5.

If you're feeling lucky: Denver Broncos

I'm very confident in the Rams this week, yet I'm still itching to take the Denver Broncos. They were incredibly unlucky while losing to the Chicago Bears in their home opener, with Joe Flacco throwing for 292 yards. Now he faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that's dealing with plenty of injuries, a laundry list that includes Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.

Most importantly here, though, is Vic Fangio's defense welcoming rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew to Mile High Stadium.

Minshew Mania has taken the NFL by storm, but Denver's defense will present his toughest challenge yet, and he has to beat that unit at altitude with the Broncos desperate.

Incredibly, Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are still looking for their first sacks this season, and this feels like a breakout game for them. Fangio will come up with a game plan to make Minshew's life miserable, and with Flacco and the Broncos' offense contributing, the former defensive coordinator finally gets his first win as an NFL head coach.

Avoid: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers

I already picked the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2, but if you haven't, this isn't the week because division rivalries can be wildly unpredictable.

Since John Harbaugh began coaching the Ravens in 2008, they're 33-3 at home when favored by at least a touchdown. All three of those losses came in divisional games.

Additionally, the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore's Week 4 opponent, will be dangerously desperate after starting the season 1-2. In a Week 17 game the Ravens had to win last season to make the playoffs, a less-talented Browns team pushed them to the brink in Baltimore before Cleveland lost 26-24. Starting Browns corners Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, and safeties Damarious Randall and Morgan Burnett, could return this week after missing the game against the Rams.

The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, have looked off this season. They're a coin toss away from an 0-3 start, with injuries and absentees taking a toll. Josh Rosen looked competent under center last week for the Miami Dolphins, and eventually, that team will play with some pride. Are we sure that doesn't happen this weekend against the Chargers, with Miami back home after a pair of heavy losses? The Chargers should win here - I'm not sure they can recover if they don't - but I don't trust them enough at this stage. I'd rather sit back and cheer for the upset.

It's only a matter of time before Miami sends 80% of survivor participants packing. I don't intend to be on the wrong side when they do.

Safety rankings (SR) are out of 10, based on author's picks

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.