Thursday Night Football betting preview: Eagles vs. Packers
Thursday night's clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers features a pair of teams heading in opposite directions, albeit a small sample. The Eagles suffered back-to-back losses to move to 1-2 on the season and haven't covered a game. They face a Packers team both 3-0 straight up and against the spread.
As Week 4 gets underway, here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective for Eagles-Packers.
Line movement
Whereas last week's Thursday night game between the Titans and Jaguars saw more movement later in the week, there's been plenty so far. The Packers opened as 3-point favorites but were hit almost immediately, getting up to as high as -5 before coming back down to -4. The total peaked at 47.5 and hit as low as 45 but is essentially cut down the middle at 46.
Betting breakdown
It appears the days of Aaron Rodgers having to bail the defense out to register wins are long gone. Green Bay's offense has actually been the struggling unit so far, ranking No. 28 in the NFL in both yards per play (4.8) and yards per game (286.7). On the flip side, the defense is in the top half of the league in yards allowed per game, while not allowing a single opponent to score more than 16 points in a contest so far. Due to that, the Packers haven't gone over the total yet this season, while the Eagles have easily flown over in two of three weeks.
The first-half prime-time under streak finally came to an end on Monday night between the Redskins and Bears. Before the Bears raced out to a 28-3 lead by half to ultimately go over the first-half total of 20.5, unders in prime time had been 9-0. Offenses under the bright lights have been slow out of the gates.
Important trends
Rarely does a team 0-3 ATS match up with a team 3-0 ATS. In fact, it's only happened six times. But the trend in this spot favors the undefeated team, as they're a perfect 6-0 against the number. Additionally, the Eagles are 0-3 ATS in the first half while the Packers are 3-0. The trends point to Green Bay.
X-factor
Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor has caught a lot of heat lately for dropping passes. With DeSean Jackson sidelined, the Eagles desperately need a vertical threat to spark big plays. Seeing as the Packers have rarely been tested vertically this season against the Bears, Vikings, and Broncos, Agholor's going to be key in stretching the field. He's also seen the largest target share of any receiver on the team by a mile the last two games, getting 23 passes thrown his way. Quarterback Carson Wentz has had four big-time throws - a Pro Football Focus metric - go for incompletions this season, the most of any quarterback in the league. That means it's time for Agholor to step up and make amends for drops against the Packers' secondary.
Pick
Over 46
By the end of the season, I think we'll see the Bears and Vikings finish inside the top five for scoring defense, and Denver's no slouch, either. I don't think Green Bay's offense deserves to be downgraded all that much. It is, of course, somewhat of a new learning curve under first-year head coach Matt LaFleur. Thursday's game provides an opportunity for Green Bay to really get going, especially through the air. The Eagles are third-worst in passing yards allowed per contest and have been handing out 100-yard games to receivers like candy on Halloween. I think both quarterbacks have huge advantages over the secondaries and wouldn't be surprised to see a track meet in Lambeau on Thursday night.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.