NFL best bets for Week 4: Seahawks rebound, Bears on upset alert

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Every Friday during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers will release their best bets for the week. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.

Odds courtesy of theScore Bet.

Thomas Casale ($1,120)

Season record: 3-1, +$120

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Line: Seahawks -5

The Seahawks are coming off a loss at home to the Saints and the two teams they've beaten this season are a combined 0-6. Luckily for Seattle, it gets another winless team on Sunday in 0-2-1 Arizona.

The Seahawks have been profitable in three spots under Pete Carroll: as an underdog, in prime-time games, and coming off a loss. Since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback, Seattle is 19-2 straight up (SU) and 14-5-2 against the spread (ATS) following a loss where it was laying points. The Seahawks fell to the Saints last week as 4.5-point favorites despite outgaining New Orleans in total yards by a massive 515-265 margin.

I can give you all the trends and stats, but this is simply a great spot to take Seattle only laying five points on the road to a Cardinals team still trying to get going under a new coaching staff. The Seahawks will be a big square public play, but last I checked, the public doesn't lose every game. This week it's hip to be square. Lay the points with Seattle.

Pick: Seahawks -5 ($75)

Alex Kolodziej ($1,055)

Season record: 6-3, +$55

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons

Total: 45.5

The Tennessee Titans' offense is basically all the slogans on the back of potato chips:

"No artificial preservatives!"

"Zero grams of trans fat!"

And for the Titans as a whole, it's something like:

"Marcus Mariota can improvise on the run if he needs to!"

"Corey Davis is just plagued by the offensive system!"

Well, you know what? This team is still terrible - and simultaneously awful for my health.

This season, Tennessee is averaging 4.9 yards per play, which is worse than the 5.3 it averaged in 2018. Sure, the Titans scored 43 points in Week 1, but that was largely due to great field position, a 75-yard screen pass, and a pick-6. This offense has been given the sixth-best starting field position in the NFL through three weeks and it still hasn't done anything since the opener.

How about Atlanta? I don't even know where to start. Matt Ryan was my MVP pick this season, but all he's done is overthrow receivers and toss interceptions in opponents' territory. It's early, but offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter doesn’t look like the answer. I cried tears of laughter once this game opened at 46.5. I'll gladly take this under with a line that's my largest disagreement of the weekend.

Pick: Under 45.5 ($40)

Alex Moretto ($988)

Season record: 2-2, -$12

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Line: Broncos -3

Anyone else think Vic Fangio is realizing why he's only been a defensive coordinator all these years? He's endured a rough start to his first head coaching gig, but this game feels like a spot where his defensive expertise will prove invaluable for the Broncos. Expect Fangio to cook up some wild schemes to get Von Miller and Bradley Chubb in the face of rookie QB Gardner Minshew, whose seductive mustache and erotic attire won't be enough to help him out of Mile High Stadium with his first road win.

In his first home start, Minshew and the Jaguars managed just 12 points against a below-average Texans defense, and they'll now face a much tougher challenge against a desperate Broncos unit - at altitude. Jalen Ramsey won't be playing for the Jaguars, which will help Joe Flacco make just enough plays to complement Denver's impressive ground game, as he did against the Bears in Week 1 when the Broncos gave away a victory. There will be no denying them on Sunday, as Fangio will get his first career win as a head coach.

Pick: Broncos -3 ($60)

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons

Line: Falcons -4

Speaking of coaches who don't belong, is everyone in Atlanta ready to see the end of the Dan Quinn era? It sure feels as though Quinn's tenure is nearing its end. I can't envision him in Atlanta next season after this team misses the playoffs.

On the opposite sideline, Mike Vrabel is coaching up a resilient bunch in Tennessee. This team went 4-0 against the NFC in his first season, including impressive wins over the Eagles and Cowboys. The Titans possess the veteran savvy in their secondary to contain Matt Ryan and Co., while their offensive line and bell-cow back Derrick Henry will wear down the Falcons' soft defensive front. Atlanta is just 9-11 SU and 7-13 ATS (35%) as a home favorite of fewer than six points under Quinn, while Tennessee has more wins than losses (6-5 SU) as a 'dog under Vrabel (7-4 ATS).

Picks: Titans +4 ($30), Titans ML ($10 to win $18)

C Jackson Cowart ($932)

Season record: 3-4, -$68

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Total: 44.5

Fading the Dolphins every game is probably the safest bet, though oddsmakers are making it hard to swallow such gargantuan weekly lines (the Chargers are listed at -16 in Week 4). Instead, we'll bet the under for a second straight week thanks to Miami's putrid offense and embarrassing run defense

The Dolphins have scored one touchdown through three games, while they've allowed six TDs on the ground alone and a league-high 208 rushing yards per contest. The Cowboys boasted two 100-yard rushers against the Dolphins last week and mostly abandoned their stellar passing game in favor of minimizing possessions and maintaining the health of their stars - which played right into a comfortable under.

Since 2012, the under is a stunning 25-4 (86.2%) in games featuring a road favorite of 10 points or higher. Expect L.A. to employ a similar run-heavy game plan as a big road favorite, milking the clock and hoping to escape Miami mostly unscathed.

Pick: Under 44.5 ($40)

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Line: Vikings +2

Are we supposed to think these teams are near-equals? Through three games, the Vikings rank eighth in adjusted DVOA and 10th in Pro Football Focus' ratings; the Bears rank 16th and 23rd, respectively. Yet oddsmakers opened the latter as -3 favorites before bettors drove them down to -2.5.

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has struggled in offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski's run-first scheme, but Dalvin Cook's league-leading efforts have carried the offense to average production through three games. Mitchell Trubisky, on the other hand, has posted an abysmal 30.0 QBR for the season even after torching Washington's beleaguered secondary on Monday.

Both defenses have been near-elite thus far, and the Bears' 31st-ranked offense, per PFF, will likely struggle much more than Minnesota's structured attack. Sprinkle some cash on +3 if it's available - a field-goal cushion never hurts in a divisional game - but the Vikings are superior enough that you can feel confident hitting the moneyline.

Pick: Vikings ML +115 ($40 to win $46)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Line: Broncos -3

Only 25 teams have been favored at home after an 0-3 start since 1989, and they've posted a combined 9-16 ATS record (36%) in those games. The Broncos are probably the best 0-3 side left, but that isn't saying much given their below-average showing on both sides of the ball in Vic Fangio's first year.

The Jaguars will be without Jalen Ramsey, but they still have A.J. Bouye to buoy a top-10 defense, per DVOA, that would rank even higher if not for Kansas City's offensive explosion in Week 1. The Jags' passing offense is also among the league's most efficient thanks to Gardner Minshew, whose 73.9% completion rate ranks second in the NFL with just one interception in two-and-a-half games.

The Jags have had 10 days to prepare for Sunday, and the Broncos' myriad secondary injuries could mean another nice outing for Minshew and Co. Denver bettors should prepare for a "world of suck."

Pick: Jaguars +3 ($40)