Sunday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Saints
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This matchup won't have the quarterback star power it promised after Week 1, but Sunday night's clash between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints will still feature two of the best rosters in the NFC in a potential conference title preview.
The Cowboys have exceeded expectations through three games - rolling through the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins with a 97-44 scoring margin and a comfortable 3-0 record against the spread. The Saints pulled off a surprise upset over the Seahawks last week despite losing veteran quarterback Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2. Can they surprise two weeks in a row?
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
Most books joined the market at Dallas -3 and nudged the line to -2.5 on Tuesday, where it sits at theScore Bet in New Jersey as of Saturday. The total opened between 45.5 and 46 and has moved to 47. Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader Jay Rood said on Friday that their biggest decision on this game is the over 47.
Betting trends
The Cowboys' offense has gotten off to a flying start, which bodes well for their chances as a short road favorite. Dallas has scored at least 28 points in three straight games but is giving less than three points on the road; since 2010, teams in that spot are 9-5 ATS (64.3%), including 5-2 in their last seven.
For all the grief Jason Garrett has taken as a coach, he's been superb as a road favorite with a 15-10 ATS record and an 11-3-1 ATS run dating back to 2014. Sean Payton is a remarkable 8-2 ATS as a home underdog - though he had Brees for every one of those games.
Instead, he'll have to rely on Teddy Bridgewater, who's a stunning 24-7 ATS (77.4%) as a starter but hasn't looked the same since his gruesome knee injury in 2016.
Despite a top-10 passer rating (112.7) in Week 3, he scored a lousy 60.8 PFF grade, ranking 22nd among QBs. He was even worse in extended Week 2 action (39.1). Those two grades are likely more predictive of his Sunday performance than final box score numbers, which could be problematic against a swarming Cowboy defense.
The X-factor
The Saints have surprisingly struggled in coverage, including a rough start for former Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore - who will likely be tasked with slowing star receiver Amari Cooper on Sunday.
Lattimore has already allowed a league-high 341 yards in coverage, and the 20 receptions against him are tied for the second-most against any defender. Cooper has 238 receiving yards and a league-leading four touchdowns, and quarterback Dak Prescott has a near-perfect 152.4 passer rating when targeting Cooper.
Pick
Everything points to Dallas in this game, and if the Saints hadn't beaten an inconsistent Seahawks team as underdogs a week ago, it'd be surprising to see this line under -3 for the road favorite.
With Brees sidelined, the Cowboys' offense and defense are simply better than New Orleans' heading into Sunday, and Payton's coaching chops are mitigated by Bridgewater's limitations under center. Giving fewer than three points looks like a gift to bettors.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.