Sunday Night Football betting preview: Colts at Chiefs
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The last time these two teams played, Andrew Luck and a budding young Indianapolis Colts nucleus seemed one year away from truly contending against Patrick Mahomes and the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs.
Plenty has changed since Kansas City's divisional-round playoff win this past January, but the Chiefs are once again sizable home favorites against a trendy but flawed Colts team. Kansas City is one of two 4-0 teams in the league, while Indy is a bad loss away from losing all the early momentum of the Jacoby Brissett era.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The Chiefs opened as 8.5-point favorites, but bettors have hammered Kansas City up to -11 as of Sunday morning. Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, said his shop has seen the Chiefs grab a 10-to-1 edge in money over the Colts and four times as many tickets, signaling strong sharp play on the home favorites.
The total has also ticked up by two points, from a 54 open to 56 as of Saturday.
Betting trends
Undefeated against the spread through three weeks, Indianapolis looked like a shell of itself in Sunday's home loss to the Raiders, who earned just their second ATS road win in their last nine games. The Colts now travel to Arrowhead Stadium to try and avenge last year's postseason loss.
Bettors love to follow revenge narratives, but how wise is a wager on vengeance in this case? Since 2012, road 'dogs that most recently faced their opponents in playoff losses are 7-21 ATS in regular-season rematches; they're 4-13 ATS when the games come in the first half of the campaign. The Saints fell 27-9 on the road against the Rams in the only game to fit the bill so far this season.
Big road 'dogs have struggled mightily of late: Double-digit home favorites are 38-23-2 ATS (62.3%) and 58-5 straight up (92.1%) since 2016. The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS but 6-0 SU in those spots under Andy Reid, while Indianapolis coach Frank Reich is 0-1 as a double-digit underdog.
The Colts' coverage and pass rush both rank below average through four weeks, which could be a major problem against Mahomes and Co. Since 2018, the Chiefs are 8-3-1 ATS when Mahomes passes for at least 310 yards and 3-6-1 ATS when he falls below that number. He threw for 315 yards last week against a superior Lions defense.
The X-factor
Indy's offense didn't look the same in Week 4 as star wideout T.Y. Hilton sat out with a quad injury. Receiver Parris Campbell also left Sunday's loss with an abdominal injury, leaving the Colts with a pass-catching corps led by receivers Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal, and Deon Cain along with tight ends Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle.
In that loss to Oakland, Brissett totaled 265 yards and three touchdowns with one interception on a brutal 52.2% completion rate against a lousy Raiders pass defense. Kansas City's secondary is arguably the team's Achilles' heel, but even with Hilton expected to play, the Chiefs' defensive backs won't be fully tested against the Colts' receiving corps.
Pick
Indianapolis was staking its claim as a sharp betting darling early in the season, but this is a different group than the one that surprised through three weeks. Five Colts are ruled out for Sunday, including Campbell and star linebacker Darius Leonard. Another five - headlined dynamic back Marlon Mack and Hilton - are officially questionable.
There may be some buyback on Indy if Hilton and Mack play, but all signs point to a Chiefs blowout after a narrow road win in Detroit. Kansas City should have an offensive field day, and the Colts simply don't have the horses to keep it close.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.