Sunday Night Football betting preview: Patriots at Ravens
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The New England Patriots' first real test amid an undefeated run comes Sunday when they face the Baltimore Ravens under the lights at M&T Bank Stadium in a potential playoff preview.
The Patriots have won three straight in this rivalry and two of three against the spread, but neither team has strung together consecutive ATS wins since John Harbaugh took over in Baltimore in 2008. Sunday's game is the smallest point spread that New England has seen all year; could it mark the Patriots' first loss, too?
Here's everything you need to know about Sunday's prime-time matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The Patriots opened as four-point favorites and they've seen nearly twice as many tickets at theScore Bet in New Jersey. But sharps are on the Ravens, who were bet at +4, +3.5, and +3.
The total opened at 44.5 and has been nudged to 45, which would be the highest total in any New England game since Week 2.
Betting trends
The Patriots' defense - and particularly their elite secondary - has embarrassed teams this year, holding opponents to a combined 61 points through eight games. It could be tougher against the league's second-best scoring offense in Baltimore, which ranks first in rushing yards per game (204.1) and second in yards per carry (5.5).
Yet Bill Belichick has routinely found success against elite rushing attacks. Since he took over in 2000, the Patriots are 25-14 ATS (64.1%) when an opponent runs for at least 5.5 yards per carry against them, the second-best mark in the NFL over that span. The rest of the league has covered just 47.9% of those games.
Sunday's contest presents a fascinating coaching matchup between Belichick and Ravens bench boss John Harbaugh, who's 8-3 ATS coming off a bye week. Since 2014, Belichick is 9-2 ATS and 10-1 straight up against coaches who have a week to prepare.
If Baltimore is to have a chance Sunday, its defense will have to step up. The Ravens are allowing 22.3 points per game this year; since the start of 2018, the Patriots are 20-1 SU and 17-4 ATS when scoring at least 21 points.
The X-factor
It's the line everyone is repeating: The Patriots haven't faced a player like Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens quarterback has never faced a defense like New England's in his life, and Belichick is renowned for taking away an opposing pivot's biggest strength. Is Jackson good enough to beat this Patriots secondary with his arm alone?
New England's defense has the athletes to spy Jackson and force him to beat man coverage, which he's still struggling to do at times. And if the Patriots - who lead the league in first-quarter points (10.9) - can build an early lead, it'll force Jackson to test their star-studded secondary. Good luck.
Baltimore has only trailed at halftime in two games this year, against the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns. Jackson had two of his three lowest rushing outputs this year in those games, and the Ravens lost both contests.
Pick
It's starting to feel like bettors are talking themselves into Baltimore as the quintessential Patriots foil here, thanks to Jackson's unique rushing ability. But two teams lesser than New England have already found ways to stump him - and the mismatch between the Patriots' offense and the Ravens' defense might be more relevant, anyway.
A close game wouldn't be surprising, nor would an outright Ravens win. But to bet on it is to fade Belichick's ability to scheme around Jackson, as he's done with so many quarterbacks before. The safer pick here is the Patriots, especially if you're only laying a field goal.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.