NFL Week 10 survivor picks

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It was smooth sailing last week. The Buffalo Bills won comfortably and the Philadelphia Eagles took care of business.

Congratulations if you're still alive in Week 10, but don't pat yourself on the back. This is the point in the season when survival is no longer expected - it's earned - and the contenders separate from the pretenders.

Here's your guide to surviving Week 10.

Safest pick: New Orleans Saints

The Atlanta Falcons might not win another game under lame-duck head coach Dan Quinn. The fact that he's still employed by the organization has to boil down to a matter of respect. After more than four years of service, two trips to the playoffs, one division title, and a Super Bowl appearance, the team is likely waiting until the end of the season to fire Quinn, but at what cost?

The players have clearly quit on their coach, as the Falcons have lost six in a row while allowing an average of 34 points per game over the skid. That reflects especially poorly on Quinn, who made a decision last offseason to take control of the defense, which ranks 30th in DVOA despite featuring some talented players.

Still, Quinn survived the dreaded bye week, with the team instead reshuffling his assistants in an attempt to provide a spark. Raheem Morris moved from wide receivers coach to defensive backs coach, Dave Brock moved from running backs coach to receivers coach, and Bernie Parmalee took Brock's place in charge of the backs (being promoted from offensive assistant). Seriously, those are changes Atlanta made during the bye week. You can't make this stuff up. That's the football equivalent of throwing all your dishes from the counter into the sink and saying you cleaned the kitchen.

Narrator: Meanwhile, in New Orleans ...

The Saints coasted into their bye week following six consecutive wins, with Drew Brees looking perfectly healthy upon his return from injury in a 31-9 win over the Arizona Cardinals. New Orleans ranks sixth in both offensive and defensive DVOA, which is the sort of balance coaches dream off. The Saints run the ball well, pass it effectively, and are stout at defending both. Plus, they just had a week off to get healthy, as Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook are both expected to return at home against a Falcons team they've handled with ease at the Superdome over the last two seasons.

If you're feeling lucky: San Francisco 49ers

I'd be willing to bet that very few people - if any - will choose the 49ers in your survivor pool this week, and it's easy to understand why. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson's 23-5-1 record together in prime-time contests speaks for itself. The Seattle Seahawks thrive under the lights and are a public betting favorite. According to Sports Insights, 68% of spread bets and 88% of moneyline bets are on the Seahawks for this matchup.

But does Seattle deserve to coast off its reputation? This season, the Seahawks have managed one-score wins over four teams that are well below .500 while failing their only real tests, losing to the Saints and Baltimore Ravens at home.

We've yet to see the Seahawks play well against a legitimately good football team, with their four road contests to date coming against underwhelming opponents. This week, they'll travel to San Francisco to take on the 8-0 49ers, who boast the NFL's best defense - a suffocating unit that's allowed just 241 yards and 12.8 points per contest. This is a statement game for Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, who will also have a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday night last week.

Avoid: Baltimore Ravens

There's no reason the Ravens shouldn't win this game. They're better in just about every area, with the biggest gulf coming at quarterback. Lamar Jackson just beat the New England Patriots, while fourth-round pick Ryan Finley will make his first career start for the Cincinnati Bengals. Finley's never attempted a pass in the NFL, but guess what? Neither had Denver's Brandon Allen before Week 9, but he threw for 193 yards and two touchdowns to beat the Cleveland Browns 24-19.

I know what you're thinking, and you're right. The Ravens are better than the Browns, and the Broncos are better than the Bengals. Still, there's a risk that comes with betting on an unknown.

At 24 years old, Finley is mature for a rookie and he's a rare breed who spent five years playing NCAA football. While he lacks professional experience, he's got the intricacies of the quarterback position down and he won't lack receiving options, with A.J. Green expected to play for the first time this season alongside Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and Alex Erickson.

This is a tricky spot for the Ravens - on the road in a divisional game following a massive win over the Patriots in prime time. It's not just a letdown spot; it's also a sandwich game, as they'll take on Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans next week. The Bengals are coming off their bye, and we've seen a quarterback change spark teams before. Tread carefully.

Week 10 safety ranking

Safety rankings (SR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.