Sunday Night Football betting preview: Packers at 49ers
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After a clunker of a Sunday Night Football game last week, recalibrate your expectations for this week, as the NFC's No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers host the No. 2 seed Green Bay Packers in a potential Game of the Year candidate.
Neither team has played its best football as of late, but both still control their destinies for a first-round bye after entering the year with so-so chances of even making the playoffs. The Packers are just a half-game up on the Minnesota Vikings in the division, while the 49ers have upcoming trips to Baltimore and New Orleans, making Sunday's clash crucial for both clubs.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
It's hard to script a more obvious -3 than this one. The 49ers and Packers appear to be near-even adversaries entering this week, so home field gives the slight edge to the favored Niners. Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, says he expects late Packers money could push this game to +2.5 or, if nothing else, juice the current +3 toward Green Bay.
While the line hasn't moved, the total has ticked up 1.5 points from 46 at the open to 47.5 as of Saturday afternoon. Weather isn't expected to be a factor Sunday night.
Betting trends
It's not often that two teams with two losses or fewer meet this late in the year. In fact, it's only happened 15 times in the last 30 years and not since 2015. When it does, the favorite has rolled, going 11-3-1 against the spread (78.6%) with an average margin of victory of 11.1 points.
The home favorite has gone 8-2-1 ATS (80%) and has been largely profitable whenever two heavyweights meet this late in the year. Since 1989, home favorites between teams with at least a .750 winning percentage are 31-16-1 ATS (66%) in Week 12 or later.
The Niners have been mediocre as home chalk this year, but Aaron Rodgers has been similarly unimpressive as a road 'dog in his career. He's also 2-8 ATS in his last 10 Sunday prime-time games.
Sunday night has been kind to under bettors this year with an 8-3 record, and this week's matchup could see another under between two capable defenses. It helps that it's expected to be a tightly contested game, as matchups with a home favorite of -2.5 or -3 are 15-8 to the under (65.2%) this year.
The 49ers' defense has been elite, yet it's riding a four-game over streak. Regression could be looming: Teams with at least a four-game over streak are 50-34-2 to the under (59.5%) since 2015.
The X-factor
The key to the spread and total will be San Francisco's significant advantage in the run game. The Niners are second in the league in rushing yards per game, while the Packers feature PFF's fifth-worst run defense grade in the NFL.
If San Fran can get its rushing attack going early, it can limit Jimmy Garoppolo's duties against an opportunistic Green Bay secondary and force Rodgers to make plays against the Niners' second-ranked coverage unit, per PFF. If the Packers can establish early balance on offense, though, it could get ugly for San Francisco and over bettors.
Pick
While these two appear mostly even on paper, most metrics give the nod to the Niners as the more complete team. It seems San Francisco's only weakness might be Garoppolo, whom coach Kyle Shanahan can mask with a run-heavy focus against Green Bay's beleaguered defense.
That would be a winning recipe for the under, which is probably the safest bet in this game. But the 49ers should be a solid play here, too, behind an elite defense that can expose the Packers' offensive inconsistencies.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.