Monday Night Football betting preview: Ravens at Rams
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The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 12 at 8-2 and sit one game back of the New England Patriots for home-field advantage in the AFC. The Ravens have won six straight and will try to keep the momentum going on Monday night in Los Angeles against the Rams.
The Rams are 6-4 and trail both the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. With only six games left, a wild-card berth is the Rams' most likely path to the playoffs. An upset of the red-hot Ravens will go a long way in Sean McVay's team's quest to return to the postseason.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The line for this game opened Ravens -1.5 but early money pushed the line to -3. It hasn't moved off this number all week and remained there as of Sunday. Books will be reluctant to make Baltimore 3.5 because sharp bettors will buy back (bet the other side) on the Rams, trying to middle the game. The total opened at 49 and got bet down to 46.5. However, the public typically bets the over on Monday night and in a game featuring Lamar Jackson, that will likely be the case again.
Betting trends
Jackson is the current favorite to win the NFL MVP award and the Rams' defense will have its hands full trying to stop the dual-threat quarterback. Jackson has completed at least 63% of his passes in six straight games while rushing for over 60 yards and scoring 17 touchdowns over that span. The Rams' defense does present a tough test for the 22-year-old. Los Angeles entered Week 12 ranked fifth against the run, allowing just 89.1 yards per game.
While the Rams' defense is playing well, McVay's offense has been inconsistent in 2019, especially when it comes to running the football. L.A. is averaging less than 100 rushing yards per game, which has put added pressure on Jared Goff and the Rams' depleted offensive line. This could be an issue for L.A. on Monday night against an aggressive Baltimore defense. The Ravens blitz more than any team in the NFL but if the Rams' offensive line can protect Goff, Baltimore's pass defense can be exploited. The Ravens only have 23 sacks on the season and are allowing 7.2 yards per completion.
When the line for this game was released over the summer, the Rams were installed as a 7.5-point favorite. A lot has changed since July with the spread moving close to 10 points toward the Ravens. Baltimore has been profitable away from home on Monday Night Football, going 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games in this spot. Meanwhile, the Rams are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home 'dogs and 4-11-1 in their last 16 overall when catching points.
The X-factor
The Ravens are absolutely on fire entering this game. Baltimore has outscored its last four opponents 157-56. Those games came against tough competition, too, with three of the wins coming over division leaders Seattle, New England, and Houston. The Ravens have been one of the NFL's most profitable road teams, going 6-2 ATS away from home over the last two seasons. Baltimore is also 20-7-4 ATS in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pick
This is one of the toughest games to call in Week 12. The Ravens are the best team in the NFL right now but this looks like a tough spot. Baltimore has played three emotional games over the last month and hosts the 49ers next week.
The value here could be with the total. While the number has been bet down to 46.5, the under is still worth considering. The Rams have scored just 29 total points over their last two games and Goff hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 8. Los Angeles has gone under in three straight and four of its last five games. Look for that trend to continue with another low-scoring affair on Monday night.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.