Sunday Night Football betting preview: Patriots at Texans
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Both the New England Patriots and Houston Texans have more important things to consider than a coaching narrative, with division rivals nipping at their heels. Yet the protege vs. master angle looms over Sunday night's contest between two of the AFC's top teams.
After five years on the Patriots' coaching staff, Texans coach Bill O'Brien is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread versus his former team, the worst record of any former Bill Belichick assistant against New England. He needs a win on Sunday to avoid squandering his lead in the tumultuous AFC South, while the Pats can't afford to slip up with Buffalo surging.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The Patriots opened as 3-point favorites at theScore Bet in New Jersey and haven't moved off that number all week, though the line is juiced at -120 in favor of New England. The total's seen some movement from 44.5 up to 46 as of early Sunday.
Betting trends
Belichick's success against the Texans - including against O'Brien - is well documented, with an 8-3 ATS record and 10-1 record SU. That dominance could continue Sunday after a couple of lethargic showings from his team.
Last Sunday's narrow win over Dallas (+5.5) was only New England's fourth ATS loss in 11 games this year. Since 2000, the Patriots are 74-50-4 ATS (59.7%) after losing against the number and 71-54-3 to the under (56.8%). They're 11-6-2 ATS in that spot since 2016 with a stellar 15-3-1 mark to the under, including seven straight.
New England is 8-2-1 to the under this year after combining for less than 50 points scored and allowed in the past two games. Teams to fall below that 50-point mark over two games are 8-4 to the under since 2018. They're also 10-6-1 to the under since 1990 when the total is at least 46, as it is for Sunday's game.
The Texans are 6-3-2 to the under this year and haven't topped 27 points since Week 6 amid a 1-4 ATS run. The most recent loss came on Thursday night in a near-defeat to the Colts - home teams coming off a Thursday game are 3-6 ATS / 5-4 to the under this year and 7-13 ATS / 14-6 to the under in their last 20 games.
The X-factor
The Patriots' once-stout offense ranks just 10th in DVOA and 15th in PFF grades, yet both platforms rank New England's defense as the best in the league behind its historically great secondary. It could force the Texans - one of only two teams with top-nine PFF grades in passing, pass-blocking, and receiving - into a one-dimensional approach on Sunday night.
That's no problem for Houston, which ranks tops in the league in rush grade and is tied for second in yards per carry (5.0). New England's defense is among the worst in the league against the run, and the Pats' depleted receiving corps likely keeps them from building a big lead at the expense of the Texans' shoddy secondary.
So what does it all mean? Expect a heavy dose of running from Houston, which might try to follow the blueprint the Ravens set forth a few weeks ago. That bodes well for under bettors, even if it might strike fear in those laying points on the road favorite.
Pick
The Patriots have been favored by more against better teams than Houston, so Sunday's short line feels like a gimme. Still, the Texans' advantage in the run game and New England's lethargic play as of late could set this up as a trap game for the AFC's top seed.
Instead, as has been the case all year for the Patriots, eye the under. Sunday's total is approaching must-bet territory for this team, which currently has the ninth-best under win percentage (80%) in the last 30 years. Belichick-coached teams skew defensive after a tough showing, so trust another under on Sunday.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.