Monday Night Football betting preview: Vikings at Seahawks

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There's a legitimate case to be made that the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings - the fifth and sixth seeds in the NFC - are among the four best teams in the conference. Both still have a chance to earn a top-four seed, and can start with a pivotal Monday night win.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

Line movement

The Seahawks opened as 3-point favorites and haven't moved at theScore Bet in New Jersey, though don't be surprised to see the Vikings reach +2.5 by kickoff. The total has been nudged from 49 to 50, which is tied for the second-highest total in the Mike Zimmer era in Minnesota.

Betting trends

Russell Wilson's success in prime time is no secret entering Monday, with a 19-6-3 ATS (76%) record and a 6-0-1 ATS mark over his last seven games. Kirk Cousins is just 6-13-1 ATS (31.6%) and 2-4-1 ATS since joining the Vikings.

Neither QB has a favorable track record as a short favorite or short underdog, but Monday's line could favor the under here. Zimmer is 18-7-2 to the under (72%) as a road 'dog and 9-3-1 to the under (75%) when catching three points or less. He's also 12-5-1 to the under (70.6%) in prime time, while the under is 24-13 (64.9%) in all prime-time games this year.

When two teams are virtually even, expect a low-scoring game. This season, games with a home favorite of 2.5 or 3 points are 15-8 to the under (65.2%). They're also 20-9 to the under (69%) in the last 29 games dating back to last season.

The Seahawks' defense was a liability early in the year, but they've shored up some of their secondary issues as evidenced in last week's 17-9 win over Philly. When a team allows fewer than 10 points in their previous game and see a total of 50 or higher, the under is 7-3 in their last 10.

The X-factor

There's no doubting the offensive firepower in this game - both teams have top-five offenses per DVOA, with two of the three top-rated quarterbacks by PFF in the league. But don't overlook these defenses, either. The Vikings have the sixth-best PFF grade on defense, while the Seahawks have put forth two of their three best performances in the last three weeks behind an improving pass rush and reworked secondary.

Seattle's defense has struggled to tackle for much of the year, which could result in a more aggressive approach stopping stud running back Dalvin Cook. If it does, that'll play right into the hands of Cousins, who ranks second in play-action percentage among QBs with at least 10 starts (Lamar Jackson).

Pick

Based on team resume alone, this couldn't be more of a quintessential "home team by three" type of game. The Vikings are simply a more well-rounded group and have had a week to prepare for Wilson's MVP-level play.

If you're married to picking the side, take the points on the road 'dog with a formula to take advantage of Seattle's weaker defense. Otherwise, trust two run-happy teams to keep it close - and low scoring - under the lights.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.