Thursday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys vs. Bears
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Both the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears are playing on Thursday for the second straight week after being featured on the Thanksgiving Day slate.
Here's everything you need to know about the NFC tilt from a betting perspective.
Line movement
Though both teams enter Week 14 at 6-6, the betting market is respecting the Cowboys more.
Despite playing outdoors on the road, Dallas is seeing mostly -3 (EV) in the marketplace, with a couple juiced -2.5 lines available. The average closing total for Cowboys games this season has been 46.4 and the Bears are at 40.1, putting the number for Thursday's clash down the middle at 43, with no real movement as of Wednesday afternoon.
Betting trends
The Cowboys lost outright to the Bills as 6.5-point favorites last week. It was yet another defeat against the spread for head coach Jason Garrett, who's on a 1-8 run ATS in Thanksgiving games. Perhaps the Cowboys can rally this week in a more favorable spot. Dallas is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 contests as a road favorite.
However, getting points at Soldier Field has been kind to the Bears. They're on a 6-1-1 run ATS as a home underdog.
After covering so many spreads and being one of the more underrated teams on the market last year, Chicago has experienced some significant regression in its second season under head coach Matt Nagy. The Bears are just 1-7 ATS over their last eight games.
Dallas has also gone under the total in 13 of its last 16 December games, while the Bears are 8-1 to the under over their last nine at Soldier Field.
X-factor
Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky can put up decent numbers against some of the more average passing defenses.
Last week against the Lions (No. 26 in pass DVOA), Trubisky threw for a season-high 338 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Against four defenses that rank in the bottom third of DVOA, he's averaged 250-plus yards through the air with 10 passing touchdowns this year.
The Cowboys slot in at No. 23, making their defense a favorable matchup for Trubisky. Plus, if Dallas' high-octane offense can move the ball, Trubisky will need to make some plays through the air to match the pace.
Pick
Over 43
I don't think we can downgrade Dallas' offense too much following last week's 26-15 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Cowboys still averaged 5.9 yards per play on a short week against a solid defense, and they didn't record a single three-and-out. Two missed field goals and a pair of turnovers on downs dragged their offense down. The Cowboys' offense is still No. 2 in DVOA, and that unit will be the best Chicago has faced all season.
It's never ideal to invest in Trubisky, but although this may look like a formidable matchup on paper, the Cowboys' defense is cratering as the season progresses. Let's just hope Trubisky isn't forced to throw to the left all evening.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.