Sunday Night Football betting preview: Seahawks at Rams
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The last time the Seahawks and Rams played each other was a whirlwind for bettors on both sides. Seattle (-2) failed to score a two-point conversion that would've given the team a three-point lead, and L.A. kicker Greg Zuerlein pushed a 44-yard field goal to slight underdog moneyline bettors on a wild Thursday night.
Sunday night's rematch could see similar betting intrigue, with the game currently priced as a pick 'em in Los Angeles. The NFC West-leading Seahawks need a win this week to threaten for the No. 1 overall seed, while the Rams are clinging to their slim playoff hopes.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
(Trends are from Sports Database unless noted otherwise.)
Line movement
The Seahawks opened as 1.5-point road favorites but are priced at pick 'em as of Saturday. The total is down from an opening 48 to 47, which is still among the higher totals on the week.
Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, says sharps have lined up on the Rams, even though his book had taken more overall money on Seattle entering the weekend. He expects this game could go off at Seahawks -1 or -1.5 if the public comes in late on the road favorite.
Betting trends
For the second straight week and fourth time this season, the Seahawks are under the bright lights in prime time. That's great news for bettors, as Seattle is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) this year in those games and a scintillating 20-6-3 ATS (76.9%) in that spot with Russell Wilson.
Wilson has also gone 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in his career when priced between -2 and +1 on the road, and he's 27-18-1 ATS (60%) when facing divisional opponents. The trends love Wilson here, as per usual.
Behind Wilson, the Seahawks have earned a 7-3-2 ATS record with just one ATS loss since Week 4. Many of those wins came against struggling squads, but the 'Hawks are still 3-1 ATS in that stretch against teams currently with winning records, per Sports Database.
The same can't be said for the Rams, who are 2-4 ATS against teams with winning records. Both wins came over clubs that suffered injuries to their starting quarterbacks before the final whistle (Saints and Bears). Los Angeles' defense earned the team victories in those two contests, and it's been stellar as of late, helping under bettors cash in six of the last seven games.
With a total this high, though, respect the Seahawks' offense. Pete Carroll is 10-2-2 ATS in his last 14 games with a total of at least 47, with an 11-3 record to the over. This season, the over is 42-31-2 (57.5%) with a total of 47 or higher.
The X-factor
The Rams' secondary has produced stellar grades in the last few weeks, seemingly coinciding with the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey. But check the competition - four of L.A.'s last five opponents ranked in the bottom 10 in PFF's offensive grades. The lone exception was Baltimore and MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson, who torched the Rams on national television.
Wilson, another MVP contender, burnt the Rams' pass defense with four touchdowns the last time they met. Expect him to test this new-look secondary with speedsters Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, forcing Los Angeles' so-so offense to match wits.
Pick
The market has moved against Seattle in this spot, likely with the belief that these two rosters aren't different enough to justify laying points on the road. Yet we've been saying that for weeks and Wilson continues to carry his group to surprising results.
This particular matchup sets up well for another statement win for Seattle, which needs this game to stave off the 49ers for the division lead. Put your money behind Wilson in this one, with some on the over if you're not buying Los Angeles' defense as of late.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.