NFL Week 15 action report: Public fading Cowboys vs. Rams
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
The NFL season is entering Week 14 with some big matchups on the slate. Where is the sharp money going? Which lines are moving the most? We're tracking the games drawing the most interest from bettors.
We talked to Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader Jay Rood to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 14 schedule.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 49) at Dallas Cowboys
The biggest movement of the week is in Dallas, where the Cowboys opened as 1.5-point favorites but have been steadily faded all week. As of Saturday, the Rams are the ones priced at -1.5, with the money still streaming on ahead of kickoff.
"It's the biggest lopsided game of the schedule so far," Rood said. "It's almost exclusively Rams at this point."
Entering the weekend, Los Angeles was drawing a 15-2 advantage in tickets and a whopping 25-1 edge in money on straight bets, with a 10-1 money advantage in parlay activity. Rood says his book steadily took bigger bets at +1, pick 'em, and -1, and the parlay activity suggests it won't end anytime soon.
"It appears that it's mostly just a go-against on the Cowboys," Rood said. "This is pretty much a pure public play. No real sharp play at all. And it's all over, as well."
Those two are related: the Rams' offense finally showed up last week against Seattle, so bettors are expecting a repeat performance on Sunday, betting the total from 48 to 49. Expect to see the Cowboys' moneyline odds creep up closer to kickoff in an effort to offset the massive L.A. liability.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, 36)
Another strong side this week is Buffalo, which is garnering 10 times as much money heading into this weekend's pivotal road clash with Pittsburgh.
The Bills are only seeing a 3-1 advantage in bet slips, suggesting some big-money activity on the short road underdogs. They're also sweeping the moneyline bets at +110 and +105, and strong parlay activity for Buffalo means the public will likely continue backing the 'dogs into Sunday.
Bettors love the under, too, on what's shaping up to be the lowest total in the last seven seasons. The game clearly profiles as an under: both teams rank below average in points and yards for but sit in the top six in points and yards against.
Yet it's a risky proposition to go under on Sunday's total, which opened at 37 but has been bet down to 36. That ties this year's Bills-Broncos game for the lowest total since 2012.
"It's hard to go a lot lower," Rood said. "It's scary to go a lot lower (as a bettor). All it takes is a turnover inside the red zone, one or two unaccounted turnovers, and it puts you right on the cusp."
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 51)
It isn't among the most-bet games, somewhat surprisingly, but Sunday's AFC South duel between the Texans and Titans might be the most significant game on the slate. And bettors aren't taking much of a side.
The Titans saw a slight 3-2 lean in money and tickets entering the weekend, influenced by a couple of bigger bets on the home favorite. Parlay activity has been nearly dead even, with a slight lean to the Texans, setting up Sunday's affair for a classic split between near-equal teams.
Given the early action, it's unlikely either team will draw enough late money to concern books. If either team does see some late attention from bettors, Rood expects it to be the Titans, who are 6-1 against the spread since installing Ryan Tannehill as the starter.
"I don't see this moving off of -3," Rood said. "You're probably gonna see the public side with the team that seems to have the hot hand right now, and that's Tennessee."
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 45.5)
One of the more surprising results from early betting returns is the public's love affair with the Broncos, who are pulling 20 times as much money on side action entering the weekend.
Much of that came on a sizable non-sharp bet at the opening number of +10.5, pushing it down to +10. Bettors still liked Denver at +10 but were more split at +9.5, prompting an adjustment back to +10 late Friday.
"Realistically, it looks like the opinion of a couple of guys," Rood said of the big money gap. "Maybe everyone's excited about Drew Lock, to see if he can produce an upset against Kansas City."
Lock impressed in his first career start, leading an outright road upset of Houston for the Broncos' fifth ATS win in their last six games. The Chiefs have been equally impressive amid a three-game winning streak, and parlay activity toward Kansas City suggests there's still money to be seen on the home favorite.
"I'm sure we're going to end up needing the Broncos when it's all said and done," Rood said.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.