NFL Week 16 survivor picks

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Two weeks. Two picks. 32 games.

The NFL regular season has reached its penultimate week and if you've made it this far in your survivor pool, you'd face no greater heartbreak than losing this close to the finish line.

We tried out a new format last week that seemed to work well. We'll get back to it again here, breaking down every game, ranked from the safest pick to the dart throws.

If you're out of your survivor pool, think of this as a moneyline parlay guide. There should be a few nuggets in here for everyone as we approach Week 16.

Week 16 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks

1. Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)

If the Ravens want to beat the Browns on Sunday to lock up the top seed in the AFC with a game to spare, they will. It's that simple.

2. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Top seed in the NFC is there for the 49ers if they win out, while the Rams are basically looking ahead to next season after losing last week. Only one team will get up for this game, and it's not Los Angeles.

3. Denver Broncos (vs. Detroit Lions)

If David Blough completed just 55% of his passes with two interceptions at home to Tampa Bay, I'm terrified to imagine how he'll manage on the road, outdoors, in the cold, against a superior Broncos defense. The Lions are a mess and need to be faded wherever possible.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (at Chicago Bears)

The Bears were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, which is especially deflating given the high expectations for Chicago coming into the year. Now they face a Chiefs team that's trying to get a first-round bye. Kansas City, please, and it's not even close.

5. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

It's the Seahawks at home in December, gunning for the top seed in the NFC. This should be straightforward. However, the Cardinals have won four of their last six trips to Seattle, all of them as underdogs, getting at least eight points in three of those wins. Oh, and three of them came in December, with two in Week 16. That's straight-up creepy. Maybe the Seahawks aren't as safe as they appear?

6. New England Patriots (vs. Buffalo Bills)

This is a really tough spot for the Bills coming off the high of clinching a playoff berth with a victory in Pittsburgh last week. It's also back-to-back road games for Josh Allen against two of the best defenses in the NFL. Look for the Patriots' defense to get the best of Buffalo's offense as New England clinches an 11th consecutive AFC East title.

7. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Even without Dalvin Cook, the Vikings are the better team. The Packers have lost three straight in Minnesota and if they lose here, they'll still win the division by beating the Lions next week. This line is indicative of what should happen on Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium.

8. Houston Texans (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

The Texans might be a public play this week, but it's for a good reason. Jameis Winston isn't the type of quarterback who can overcome the loss of two star wide receivers to beat a good team. Without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and with no running game to speak of, this feels like an ugly Winston performance.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (at New York Jets)

Devlin Hodges is 3-0 on the road, while the Steelers' defensive front should wreak havoc on the Jets' miserable pass blocking. When Sam Darnold isn't kept clean, the Jets' offense tends to capitulate. That should be the case here.

10. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

There's nothing safe about picking between a pair of teams counting down to the offseason. Both showed good compete in wins on the road last week. If they both come to play, the Falcons should have enough to win - but that's a big "if."

11. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Carolina Panthers)

This is probably a little lower on the board than it should be. I expect Frank Reich to get a good response from the Colts after Monday's disastrous effort in New Orleans, but I'm a bit uneasy about Will Grier making his first start for the Panthers. It's hard to be certain about what to expect from the rookie quarterback, and it's possible his first start gives a boost to a Carolina team that has been a disaster of late.

12. Washington Redskins (vs. New York Giants)

I'm impressed by the progress Dwayne Haskins has made this season. The Redskins are closing out the year strong, while the Giants haven't beaten them twice in the same season since 2014.

13. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Oakland Raiders)

The Chargers as home favorites - what could go wrong?

14. Cincinnati Bengals (at Miami Dolphins)

I sneakily kind of love the Bengals this week, but nothing about picking the Bengals - or the Dolphins, for that matter - screams confidence. Still, Andy Dalton has Cincinnati's offense chugging along respectably, while the Dolphins are down to third-stringers at almost every position.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

You have a better chance of getting me to quit gambling altogether than you do getting me to put my money on this game.

16. New Orleans Saints (at Tennessee Titans)

Good luck figuring out which Titans team shows up. Same goes for the Saints, for that matter.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.