Sunday Night Football betting preview: Chiefs at Bears
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This game could have come with fascinating playoff implications for the surging Chicago Bears. Instead, after last week's loss to the Packers, it sets up as a massive letdown spot against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who are still jockeying for AFC playoff seeding.
The Chiefs have now won four straight while looking like the team that nearly made the Super Bowl last year. Can they make it five against a Bears club not playing for much?
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
(Trends source: Sports Database unless noted otherwise)
Line movement
The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point road favorites at theScore Bet in New Jersey, where bettors immediately bought them to -5 and eventually to -6. Some Bears money brought the line down to KC -5.5, but it's back up to -6 on Saturday.
Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, said he wouldn't be surprised if this game closed at Chiefs -7. The total, on the other hand, has moved very little, going from 45 to 44.5.
Betting trends
Giving six-plus points to the home team is usually reserved for truly down-and-out squads, which speaks to how unfavorably the market views the 7-7 Bears. This has also been a great spot to play the road favorite, as dating back to 2018, away teams giving six-plus points are 34-12-1 against the spread (73.9%), including a 19-7-1 ATS record (73.1%) this year alone.
Chicago's Matt Nagy hasn't logged much experience as a home 'dog in his brief two-year career as a head coach, and he's a lackluster 1-3 ATS this year when catching points. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have covered three straight as favorites and are 9-4-2 ATS (69.2%) on the road when Mahomes is behind center.
Including last week against Denver, Kansas City is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS against teams with a top 12 defense by DVOA, averaging 27 points per game. If the Chiefs score that much again, it's over for the Bears, who have lost their last 30 games when allowing 27-plus points, with a 2-27-1 ATS record in that span.
It might be tougher for the Chiefs to score in Chicago, where the Bears are 5-2 to the under with an average of 35.7 combined points scored in those games. Kansas City is also on a nice under run, with four straight games below the total thanks to an inspired defense averaging 11.25 points allowed in that span.
The X-factor
Kansas City's defense has rightfully drawn plenty of criticism in recent years. The unit allowed 405.5 yards (31st) and 26.3 points (24th) per game in 2018. However, this year the Chiefs' defense is giving up 356.7 yards and a mere 20.3 points, the latter tied with the Broncos for 10th-best in the league, and it sits at No. 11 in DVOA rankings.
The Chiefs' fatal flaw is still their run defense, which ranks 30th in PFF grades. The good news? The Bears' rushing offense is even worse and has been given the league's lowest grade, meaning Kansas City's underrated pass rush should get some opportunities to make life difficult for Mitchell Trubisky.
Pick
The Bears' late push for a playoff spot was a fun narrative, but it disguised Chicago's serious offensive holes, and the team no longer possesses a world-beating defense to cover up those flaws. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have put together a respectable defense that can rise to the occasion when a strong rushing attack isn't threatening the unit.
The best play here is one that perhaps goes against convention: Trust Kansas City's defense and fade the Bears' team total.
The game under would be a safe play, too, if the Chiefs' offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders. If you need side action, the Bears are brutal in shootouts, and it's hard to see Mahomes getting shut down in this one.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.