Monday Night Football betting preview: Packers at Vikings

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If you think the drama from this week's Cowboys-Eagles game is must-see TV, try Monday night's matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings - two better teams with similar divisional stakes on the line.

The Packers are a game up on the Vikings, partly due to an easier schedule, and they need just one win to clinch the NFC North then fight for a first-round bye. If they falter, though, the Packers could easily be on the road during Wild Card Weekend and facing this same Minnesota team again at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

(Trends source: Sports Database unless noted otherwise)

Line movement

Oddsmakers hung the Vikings as four-point favorites, but that wasn't high enough for bettors, who bought them up to -4.5, -5, and now -5.5.

The total has remained untouched at 46.5, which makes sense given the recent over run for Minnesota and under streak for Green Bay.

Betting trends

Kirk Cousins' troubles in prime time are well-publicized, with a 6-14-1 record against the spread (30%) in his career and a brutal 0-8 mark on Monday night.

You know who else is a prime-time liability? Aaron Rodgers, who's 2-8 ATS under the lights since 2018, and his 6-14 ATS lifetime record (30%) as a prime-time road dog is equally as bad as Cousins' struggles overall.

However, Cousins doesn't struggle as a big favorite, going 10-4-2 ATS (71.4%) when given at least three points, with a 14-2 record straight up in that scenario. His head coach Mike Zimmer is 23-9-5 ATS (71.9%) when giving three-plus points, and 14-5-3 ATS when favored by at least 5.5, where the line sits a day ahead of kickoff.

Zimmer also knows how to get the most from his team in the latter stages of the season. Excluding Week 17 - when motivation can skew results - the Vikings are 20-9-2 ATS (69%) in Week 12 or later under Zimmer, including 7-2-1 ATS (77.8%) in divisional games. Rodgers, meanwhile, is 4-7 ATS in that spot dating back to 2016.

Every spot looks like a profitable under play with Zimmer involved, who's 53-38-6 to the under (58.2%) in his career, though the Vikings have gone over in seven of their last nine games, eight of which came against defenses ranked outside the top 10 in PFF grades.

Green Bay's defense ranks ninth overall, with top-eight grades in coverage (eighth) and pass rush (sixth). The unit has also helped to produce six straight unders, which is tied for the NFL's longest streak. Its biggest vulnerability is against the run, which won't be as much of a factor with Dalvin Cook out on Monday.

The X-factor

Cook's injury could complicate matters for Minnesota's offense, which relies heavily on his game-breaking ability to set up the passing game. Only Lamar Jackson uses play-action on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than Cousins, who has posted a league-best 135.3 passer rating on those throws with a 14-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

That doesn't mean Cousins will flop, as his completion percentage on non-play action throws (69.2%) is tied for the best in the league, but the pivot's yards per attempt dips from 9.9 to 7.7. Expect a more conservative, short-passing approach from the Vikings' offense, which could be down to third-string back Mike Boone if regular backup Alexander Mattison can't suit up.

This will also be Rodgers' toughest test since facing San Francisco's defense, which obliterated him on a national stage. The Niners are one of only four teams with a defense that both PFF and DVOA rank in the top six, a group that includes the Vikings' unit too.

Pick

In a game Minnesota absolutely needs for playoff positioning, everything points to a throwback recipe for Zimmer's squad: short passing, ball control, and stout defense to keep the road rivals at bay.

The Vikings should win Monday's game. They've been the better team all year, records aside, and are poised for another strong late-season push under Zimmer.

However, giving more than a field goal in what profiles as a dogfight is risky, so playing the under here could be the safe bet in arguably the week's best matchup.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.