NFL Week 17 survivor picks

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Week 17 in the NFL is college football's equivalent to bowl season.

There are a handful of games that can be taken at face value, but the majority are difficult to gauge as far as motivation is concerned.

Which teams might rest players? Whose minds are on a beach in Montego Bay? Which players are fighting for jobs next season?

These are all questions that need to be carefully examined in Week 17. I'll do my best to map out the scenarios to help make the decision as safe as possible.

Week 17 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks

1. New Orleans Saints (at Carolina Panthers)

With top seed in the NFC in their sights, the Saints aren't losing to Will Grier and a Panthers team that hasn't won since Nov. 3.

2. New England Patriots (vs. Miami Dolphins)

The day the Patriots lose a December game at Foxboro to the 4-11 Dolphins - with a first-round bye at stake - is the day I officially declare their dynasty over.

3. Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions)

With a win in Detroit, the Packers would secure a first-round bye and ensure the NFC Playoffs go through Lambeau Field if San Francisco also loses. That's all the motivation they need to beat the David Blough-led Lions, and it shouldn't be all that uncomfortable, either.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (at New York Giants)

Doug Pederson and the Eagles proved last week they're capable of buckling down and putting in a strong defensive effort when they need it most, while the offense did its part as well. I saw all I needed in that game to feel confident in Philadelphia beating the Giants with the season on the line.

5. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington Redskins)

The Redskins are scanning the D.C. area to find someone to start at defensive back for them. Although it won't matter after the Eagles get the job done in New York, Jason Garrett gets one last win for the Cowboys before being fired on Black Monday.

6. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)

The Chiefs have an outside chance at a bye, though they'd need the Patriots to lose in order for that to happen. Patrick Mahomes likely won't play all of this game, especially if they go into the locker room at halftime and see New England up 21-3, but Matt Moore is still good enough to beat a very bad Chargers team.

7. Tennessee Titans (at Houston Texans)

The likelihood of the Texans moving into the third seed is slim. They can't get a bye and essentially are headed for a date with Buffalo next weekend. Despite Bill O'Brien insisting his starters will play, it would be incredibly shocking if they did for more than a half, if that. I wouldn't want to be O'Brien on Monday morning if Watson gets hurt in a meaningless game. Meanwhile, it's a case of "win and you're in" for the Titans, who shouldn't have much issue taking care of business against Houston's backups.

8. Los Angeles Rams (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

How will the Rams respond to officially being eliminated from the playoffs, just a year removed from being in the Super Bowl? Sean McVay cares about his reputation way too much than to punt the final game of the season, no matter how meaningless it may be. If Kyler Murray misses this game - he should, with the Cardinals hardly needing to risk their rookie - they don't stand much of a chance in L.A.

9. San Francisco 49ers (at Seattle Seahawks)

The 49ers are a better team than the Seahawks and it's not particularly close. I'm willing to die on that hill. Seattle is now riddled with injuries and limping into the playoffs. All signs point to San Francisco here, but it's still a game at CenturyLink Field, in December, in prime time, so we have to at least tread somewhat carefully.

10. Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Doug Marrone is watching the Jaguars burn. Things are so bad in Jacksonville it seems almost impossible a large part of this roster was in the AFC Championship Game two years ago. The Colts are still fighting for Frank Reich and should secure an 8-8 finish in the first season of the post-Andrew Luck era.

11. Denver Broncos (vs. Oakland Raiders)

The Raiders needed five things to happen for them in Week 16 to stay alive in the playoff hunt and need four things to happen in Week 17. Wouldn't it be the most Raiders thing ever to go and lose this game? The Broncos continue to play impressive football on both sides of the ball - they're 3-1 in December - and I like them to finish the season strong at home.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland Browns)

It wouldn't be December football without the Browns in disarray: Odell Beckham is yelling at coach Freddie Kitchens, the once-beloved Baker Mayfield is being taunted by Cleveland fans, and the Bengals are sitting back laughing having locked up the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. They can play free here while the Browns pick fights with one another on the sidelines. Happy Holidays.

13. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago Bears)

Losing to Green Bay on Monday night solidified the Vikings as the NFC's sixth seed. With no room to move up or down, and a number of players battling injuries, there might be a lot of familiar faces in street clothes on the Minnesota sidelines Sunday when they host the Bears. Mike Zimmer might want to see his offense rebound and get back into a rhythm before the playoffs, but with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison likely sitting out, and Kirk Cousins not likely to play more than a half, it's hard to feel confident in predicting how this plays out.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Interceptions aside, the Buccaneers' offense still looks efficient without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Falcons have won three consecutive but it would be fitting to end this up-and-down season with a loss.

15. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Lamar Jackson won't play, but Robert Griffin III isn't your average backup. Can the Steelers score enough to beat RG3's Ravens? Wouldn't John Harbaugh love to eliminate his AFC North rivals from playoff contention? There are too many question marks here to feel comfortable either way.

16. New York Jets (at Buffalo Bills)

Sean McDermott says he hasn't decided if he will rest his starters, but it would be a shock to see them play. With the Bills looking at a date with the Texans on Wild Card Weekend, expect a healthy dose of Matt Barkley. There will be a lot of key guys sitting for Buffalo and you'd like to think the Jets can take advantage, but it's the Jets, so who knows.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.