NFL best bets for Week 17
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Every week during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers release their best bets. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
Odds are courtesy of theScore Bet.
Thomas Casale ($1,333)
Season record: 12-8-2, +333
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Total: 45
I don't bet much in Week 17 because I'm not a big fan of guessing a team's motivation. Instead of trying to figure out which squads will show up, I'm taking a total. The Eagles and Giants just played in Week 14 with Philly winning 23-17 in overtime. Expect this one to be a much higher-scoring affair. After struggling in the first half against the Giants, Carson Wentz caught fire and led the Eagles to a comeback victory. In his last two games, Wentz has thrown for 585 yards with four touchdowns to no interceptions, while completing 73.6% of his passes.
Rookie Daniel Jones makes his first career start against the Eagles after missing the first meeting with an ankle injury. The Giants' offense has been red-hot the last two games, scoring 77 points in wins over the Dolphins and Redskins. In his first game back last week, Jones ripped Washington's secondary for 352 yards and five touchdowns.
The Giants' pass defense is awful, allowing 8 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the Eagles' secondary can be exploited, and Jones has shown no hesitation to get the ball down the field, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt last week. The over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the two teams in New York, and I like that trend to continue in a wild, high-scoring game Sunday.
Pick: Over 45 ($100)
Alex Kolodziej ($925)
Season record: 12-10, -$75
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 43
The Jaguars' offense peaked during the middle of the season and tapered down the stretch. Jacksonville is slated to end the year in the bottom eight in both rush and pass offense DVOA. Despite meeting the Colts in the dome with nothing to play for, I think we're looking at an under between these two AFC South affiliates, particularly on the first-half total. Indianapolis has a clear advantage on the ground and should eat up clock, while the Jags have gone under the total in 13 of the last 15 first halves against divisional opponents.
Pick: First-half under 20.5 ($20)
Alex Moretto ($895)
Season record: 17-18-1, -$105
Cleveland Browns (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns' season reminds me a lot of Harry and Lloyd's lives at the start of "Dumb and Dumber": "We got no food, we got no jobs, our pets' heads are falling off!" Frustrations seemed to boil over in Cleveland's home finale last week, allowing 31 points in 32 minutes to the Ravens, with fans booing Baker Mayfield off the field, and Odell Beckham fighting Freddie Kitchens on the sideline. The dysfunction has reached new heights, and the offseason can't come soon enough.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are clicking on offense and really should have won in Cleveland a few weeks ago, a game in which they averaged 6.3 yards per play. They've locked up the top pick in April's draft and will be playing loose in what is a big spot for first-year head coach Zac Taylor to open the playbook and end the season on a high against a division rival.
Pick: Bengals ML +130 ($100)
C Jackson Cowart ($751)
Season record: 16-17-3, -$249
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at Houston Texans
These teams just played two weeks ago, and the Texans looked like the better squad on the road. Now they're getting more than a field goal at home, but the line has been moving toward them all week after head coach Bill O'Brien insisted he'll trot out his best players Sunday.
A win this week is clearly more important for the Titans, but knocking off Tennessee would mean the Texans could potentially avoid a dreaded third meeting in four weeks against their division rivals. There's too much value with this line to dismiss Houston at home.
Pick: Texans +3.5 ($50)