Early birds: The Ravens got ahead with a new, cerebral identity
These aren't your father's Ravens.
Heck, these Ravens - the ones that rattled off 12 straight wins to claim the AFC North and top seed in the conference - are vastly different from the overpowering and intimidating units that won two Super Bowls and contended for several others over the last 20 years.
For years, roughness and toughness defined the franchise. Ray Lewis established that culture, players like Ed Reed, Anquan Boldin, and Haloti Ngata upheld it, and Terrell Suggs preserved it.
The elder birds have moved on, but their legacy remains visible in Baltimore. "Play Like A Raven" signs are plastered in M&T Bank Stadium. The same words are printed across merchandise and appear on social media - only now, they have new meaning.
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"He's a playmaker."
That's what Ravens coach John Harbaugh said after Baltimore traded back into the first round to draft Heisman Trophy quarterback Lamar Jackson in 2018.
"We do some analytics, and when the ball is in his hands, there hasn't been a better playmaker, really, in the last few years coming out."
Jackson was the fifth signal-caller taken that draft, following Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen. Known for electric foot speed rather than an accurate arm, skeptics questioned whether he could stick at quarterback in the NFL. The Ravens asked other questions, thus beginning their journey into a futuristic space.
"If you put two quarterbacks on the field at once, what options does it create for our offense?" Harbaugh pondered after watching Jackson at 2018 minicamp.
The Ravens are still working on that particular model (although they debuted the look in November), but the thought process was evidence of Baltimore's transformation into one of the most innovative and cerebral teams in pro football.
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This year, Jackson ran play-action on the highest percentage of passes among starting quarterbacks. He posted a 120.5 passer rating on play-action, seventh-best among starters if you include Ryan Tannehill (10 starts) and Gardner Minshew (12 starts) on that list.
Surely, the Ravens studied the effectiveness of play-action regardless of whether a ground attack has already been established (spoiler alert: it still works). Eric DeCosta, who began organizing the Ravens' analytics department in 2012, hired a number of statistical analysts after taking over for Ozzie Newsome as general manager following the 2018 season.
"We have some really smart people using the data and building models and algorithms and things and looking for ways to exploit the information," DeCosta said of the Ravens' new analytical approach in January 2019. "I think we're really going to start to see some cool things in the next five years."
Perhaps the Ravens have more in store for the future, but we're already seeing some of the aforementioned "cool things."
In 2019, the Ravens ran more plays from the pistol set than every other team combined. The formation sees Jackson in the shotgun with a running back behind him. It allows the Ravens to attack downhill as soon as the ball is snapped with either Jackson or another ball carrier, and in any direction, without tipping off the defense beforehand. Of course, the Ravens can also throw out of the pistol.
"When you're in the shotgun, it's pretty easy … people can make some calls, some line stunts, etcetera," Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman said in early December. "I like the shotgun, too, don't get me wrong. But the pistol formation allows you to run your whole offense. They don't know which way you're going. That's good for the offense."
As Danny Kelly of The Ringer illustrates, the threat of Jackson keeping the ball and running enables the Ravens to pit two potential ball carriers against one isolated defender:
Many teams use pre-snap movement, and the benefits are simple: motion can reveal the defensive coverage, create separation for the moving receiver, and force defenders into an occasional miscommunication. The Ravens have taken it to another level in 2019, frequently snapping the ball with a man actively on the move. Motion at the snap takes defensive backs out of their gaps in the running game, and magnifies the other effects of traditional pre-snap movement.
"As you look at an entire game - if you take every defensive call, every offensive call, every shift, every motion, and you multiply them by the possibilities of adjustments, you're looking at a lot of adjustments," Roman explained before facing the San Francisco 49ers.
The Ravens finished the regular season first in scoring offense, second in yards, and became the first team in NFL history to average over 200 yards rushing and passing.
On fourth down, the Ravens converted a league-best 70.8% of their attempts. They went for it 24 times, putting them near the top of the league with the Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, and several bad teams whose aggressiveness was more a product of playing from behind.
They displayed the type of aggression the Eagles made famous in their Super Bowl year, which statisticians have been begging teams to do for years.
"I have a good understanding of the numbers and how it worked," Harbaugh said after losing to the Chiefs in a game that saw the Ravens go for it on fourth down four times and attempt a two-point try early in the fourth quarter.
"Our decisions gave us the best chance to win the game, in that particular game. These are not league-average choices. These are determined by this game and for this game specifically, in that venue; weather is even factored into it. There's a lot of factors that go into it that are mathematically calculated."
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Defensively, the Ravens are built on pass coverage more than pass rush. Both are important, but elite coverage is more difficult to scheme against, which is why the extremely sophisticated mathematical equations indicate it's more valuable.
That's probably why, instead of acquiring a pass-rusher to help a defense struggling early in the season, DeCosta traded for cornerback Marcus Peters. That's also probably why, at least in part, DeCosta let edge rusher Za'Darius Smith take a big-money deal with the Green Bay Packers in free agency last offseason, ensuring he'll have room to extend cornerback Marlon Humphrey in the future. Similarly, DeCosta gave safety Earl Thomas a big contract when no one else would instead of re-signing linebacker C.J. Mosley.
Despite losing Smith, Suggs, Mosley, and Eric Weddle from last year's top-ranked defense, Don Martindale's unit - anchored by a restocked secondary - hardly tailed off.
Ravens' defensive ranks the last 5 seasons
Year | Total defense | Scoring defense |
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2019 | 4 | 3 |
2018 | 1 | 2 |
2017 | 12 | 6 |
2016 | 7 | 9 |
2015 | 8 | 24 |
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The Ravens relied on grit and defensive star power for over 20 years. It took them to a pair of championships, but as an aging core disintegrated and the NFL implemented rule changes that favored offenses, Baltimore was forced to reinvent itself.
And that's exactly what the Ravens did. They're still physical and fundamentally sound - they still know what it means to play like a Raven - but that's no longer how they wear opponents down.
Because in 2019, and 2020, to think like a Raven is the way to get ahead.