NFL player props: Best bets for Wild Card Weekend
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The NFL postseason opens this weekend with a four-pack of games. Instead of dissecting the matchups from a spread or totals perspective, let's dive into the best individual player props to consider.
Josh Allen over 217.5 passing yards
I love the matchup for Allen this weekend against the Texans. The Bills quarterback hasn't thrown for more than 217 yards in any of his last three meaningful starts, but can you blame him? Allen faced the Patriots, Steelers, and Ravens, who rank first, second, and fourth in pass defense DVOA, respectively. Oddly, he's also been better on the road than at home this season, averaging roughly 50 more yards per game.
Houston's secondary, which ranks No. 23 in pass defense DVOA and No. 22 in explosive pass rate allowed, has been a weak point all season. This will be Allen's most favorable matchup since he faced the Dolphins in Week 11, a game in which he threw for 256 yards and three scores.
Dawson Knox over 24.5 receiving yards
Common logic would point to pairing Allen's passing yards with another over on a John Brown or Cole Beasley prop. I think Knox is the better pick here at a much lower total.
The Texans' defense is surrendering an average of 56.1 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season. Over Houston's last seven contests, that number ballooned to 75.9. Knox only has six catches over his last four games, but he's seen 13 total targets over that span.
A.J. Brown longest reception over 25.5 yards
Brown has the toughest draw of any receiver in the wild-card round, matching up against stud Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore. I'd stay away from any catch- or yard-related prop and instead focus on his longest reception. Gilmore has allowed roughly half of the targets thrown his way to be completed this season, so don't expect Brown to consistently light up the stat sheet Saturday. However, the Titans rookie has eight plays of more than 40 yards to his credit this season and should be good for at least one splash play.
Carson Wentz under 267.5 passing yards
Following a string of overs, here's an under that's worth a stab. Not only is Wentz's supporting cast banged up, he faces a Seahawks secondary that's quietly risen to No. 15 in pass defense DVOA. The end of his season was also a cakewalk, as the Eagles faced five consecutive secondaries ranked 23rd or lower in pass defense DVOA.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.