NFL Wild Card Weekend action report: Lopsided play on Saints, Seahawks
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The NFL playoffs are upon us, which means increased attention from bettors on a handful of games. Where is the sharp money going? Which lines are moving the most? We're tracking the action on the biggest postseason contests.
We talked to Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader Jay Rood to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Wild Card Weekend games.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5, 43.5)
The Texans have seen twice as much money so far in this matchup, which should come as no surprise given the public-friendly nature of their high-flying offense. What is surprising is the early movement on the point spread.
Houston opened as a 3-point favorite but is down to -2.5. Rood says the line will likely stay there unless the continued Texans money overwhelms his book. Some early Bills money pushed that line down, and a few sharper players are on the road 'dog even while the overall money skews toward Houston.
"I would imagine this game stays there," Rood says. "If you're at 2.5 you're probably going to stay at 2.5. If you're at 3, you're probably going to stay at 3."
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-4.5, 44)
Is this the end of the dynasty? Most bettors think not, with New England drawing roughly 70% of the bet slips as of Friday. As far as money, the returns are split, and the line hasn't moved off Patriots -4.5 in either direction.
"It's close to as even as you could ask for," Rood said.
Parlay bettors are torn, too, with 60% of the money on Tennessee and roughly 60% of the tickets on New England. Rood says there are monitored players on both sides of the game, which is an enviable position for the book.
The only lopsided position thus far is on the total, which has bumped up from 43.5 to 44 due to heavy over play. The Titans are mostly to thank with a 9-1 record to the over in Ryan Tannehill's starts this season.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8, 49)
The biggest lopsided decision thus far is in favor of the Saints, who have seen four times as much money as the Vikings as the biggest favorites on Wild Card Weekend. New Orleans has also drawn 70% of the ticket count, with play from sharp and public bettors alike.
Parlay slips are coming up Saints, too, with four times as much money thus far. New Orleans at home against Kirk Cousins in the spotlight is a friendly recipe for an avalanche of bets, Rood said.
"I just think people really believe the Saints are a completely different team at home," Rood said. "That's when the public tends to jump on them."
Ironically, the Saints are 2-5 ATS at home in playoff games under Sean Payton and 2-7 ATS as playoff favorites, though they've only lost one home playoff game outright during that stretch.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 45.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The only road favorite of the postseason is, predictably, drawing the most money, which says as much about the Seahawks as it does about the snakebitten Eagles.
Seattle opened as a 1-point favorite and was bet all the way up to -2 before settling at -1.5 as of Friday. The Seahawks are pulling 70% of the early money with a whopping 8-1 advantage in tickets, while parlay bettors are dropping 10 times as much money on the Seahawks with a 6-1 ticket advantage.
The bigger bets have actually come in on the Eagles, who have seen an average bet four times higher than those on Seattle. But because of the overwhelming number of bet slips on the road favorite, it's not enough to balance the books.
"We're gonna need the Eagles at home, for sure," Rood said. "The late game on Sunday is gonna be holding a lot of marbles."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.