Tua NFL draft odds: Will Tagovailoa be a top-5 pick?
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Healthy or not, Tua Tagovailoa is going pro.
The former Alabama quarterback announced Monday that he was declaring for the 2020 NFL Draft, ending weeks of speculation about whether a severe hip injury would keep him in college for another year.
After his decision, oddsmakers set the over/under on his draft position at 4.5, with an outside shot at him going No. 1 overall:
| DRAFT SPOT | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 2-5 |
| Under 4.5 | 2-1 |
| No. 1 | 16-1 |
In the weeks before his injury, Tagovailoa was considered a near-lock to be the No. 1 overall pick in this April's draft. But the injury - which also coincided with Joe Burrow's ascension as a top prospect - knocked Tagovailoa off the top spot, and he could potentially slide outside the top 10 if teams are scared by his medical information.
Even with the injury, he's still projected as the fifth overall pick in theScore's latest mock draft. His elite feel and ability to read defenses should be unthreatened by his recent injury, and a healthy Tagovailoa has the kind of pocket mobility that separates the top quarterbacks in the league. On the basis of talent alone, Tagovailoa is a slam-dunk top-five pick and would challenge Burrow for the top spot if healthy.
"If healthy" is the biggest question, though, and it's one that could cloud Tagovailoa's entire career.
In his final collegiate game, a Nov. 16 win over Mississippi State, Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated hip with a posterior wall fracture. Two days later, he underwent surgery, which could keep him away from football activities until sometime around the NFL combine in late February. If Tagovailoa's recovery stalls, there's a chance teams could be forced to make a draft evaluation on his pre-injury form without assurances of his post-ailment abilities.
Shortly after Monday's decision, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that Tagovailoa had received a solid thumbs-up on his medical situation before declaring for the draft. Perhaps that's a sign of confidence from Tagovailoa, which in turn could make it worth betting high on his draft stock.
This early on, though, all we can do is speculate on his recovery process. His hip injury complicates how effective he'll be if and when he recovers - and teams could be scared off by durability issues that predate his most recent medical scare.
Before accumulating a 22-game start streak that was snapped in late October due to a high ankle sprain, Tagovailoa had broken his finger, sprained his knee, injured his quad, and suffered a high ankle sprain in his other foot in only a 20-month span.
Which teams could take a chance on Tagovailoa? The Bengals (No. 1 pick), Dolphins (No. 5), Chargers (No. 6), Panthers (No. 7), Colts (No. 13), and Buccaneers (No. 14) could all be in the market for a quarterback in the top half of the draft. That's to say nothing of a team trading up for a pivot, or a team like Washington (No. 2) or Detroit (No. 3) surprising us with a quarterback change.
If his medicals are concerning, Tagovailoa could be a good fit on a team like New England (No. 23) or New Orleans (No. 24), which can afford to let him recover and learn behind an aging quarterback. Or maybe a club with multiple picks - Miami, anyone? - would be willing to roll the dice with one of its secondary first-rounders.
Whichever team takes him, it's hard to see Tagovailoa opting for the draft if he wasn't confident in teams' interest in him as a high first-rounder, given that a healthy senior-year performance would likely vault him back into the top five.
He's not the surefire top pick he once was, and betting him to go ahead of Burrow feels foolish. But his upside and apparent confidence in his rehab process make him a safe bet to be a top-10 pick, even if he doesn't quite crack the top four.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.