Super Bowl LIV Tale of the Tape: Who holds the advantage at each position?
Does defense really win championships, or is Patrick Mahomes truly unstoppable?
We'll find out in Super Bowl LIV in a classic matchup featuring the San Francisco 49ers and their stifling defense against the Kansas City Chiefs and their high-scoring offense.
Here's how the best from each conference match up position by position:
Quarterback
Mahomes is the league's hottest quarterback. The Chiefs gunslinger has led comebacks from deficits of 24 and 10 points during the postseason.
In addition to the eight touchdown passes and 615 yards he's thrown for over Kansas City's last two games, Mahomes was also the team's rushing leader in both contests. The pivot is an offensive threat who can take over games any way he sees fit.
For the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo is enjoying a quiet postseason. He's enjoying it because the Niners are still winning games, just not as a result of anything he's doing with his arm. His stat line in the conference championship was nothing to write home about.
Comp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garoppolo | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Mahomes often eclipses those totals in one quarter.
Advantage: Chiefs
Running back
Garoppolo is doing so little because the 49ers' rushing attack is so potent. Since Garoppolo's first-quarter interception against the Vikings during the divisional round, the Niners have dialed up 70 runs and just 14 pass attempts.
The 49ers are averaging 235 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, arriving at those gaudy totals against rushing defenses that were ranked higher than the Chiefs' unit during the regular season.
If Tevin Coleman is unable to suit up for the Super Bowl due to his dislocated shoulder, Raheem Mostert has proven he's more than capable of carrying the load. Though he hasn't started a game all season, Mostert is coming off a 220-yard, four-touchdown performance, and he should be the primary focus of San Francisco's offensive game plan on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs' quarterback is leading their rushing attack. Damien Williams has been bottled up this postseason while averaging 3.2 yards per carry, though he's found the end zone three times.
Kansas City's offense runs through Mahomes' rocket right arm. If the Chiefs are running the ball in the Super Bowl, they're protecting a healthy lead.
Advantage: 49ers
Receivers
One passing offense is averaging 95.5 yards per game this postseason, and the other is putting up 345 yards per matchup.
The former is the 49ers, and they're still capable of going blow-for-blow with the league's best offenses, as evidenced by their 500-yard output in a 48-46 win over the Saints in Week 14. They can deploy the weaponry to mount an aerial attack, but their offensive identity is forged on the ground. And trying to beat Mahomes at his own game in the biggest contest of the year doesn't serve the Niners well.
The one passing advantage San Francisco typically enjoys is at tight end with George Kittle, but Kansas City is perhaps the only team that can deploy a similar threat. Kittle and Travis Kelce are the NFL's premier talents at the position.
When it comes down to it, the Chiefs rely more heavily on their stable of Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman. Few defenses can keep up.
Advantage: Chiefs
Offensive line
One team owns the advantage in run blocking and the other in pass blocking.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Chiefs allowed the second-fewest quarterback pressures in 2019, even over 600-plus passing snaps, according to PFF. They produced a pass-blocking efficiency rating of 90.1. The 49ers finished middle of the pack in that department with an 84.8 rating.
San Francisco earned a superior run-blocking grade, ranking fifth in the league with a 74.2 rating. The Chiefs ranked 19th with a 59.8 rating.
Kansas City has kept Mahomes pretty clean all season, but the quarterback deserves much of the credit for his scrambling and ability to extend plays while outside the pocket.
A superior scheme fuels the 49ers' road-grading run game. That's one of the team's strengths, earning San Francisco the advantage here.
Advantage: 49ers
Front seven
The 49ers enter the game with 57 total sacks this season. Since 2005, San Francisco is the seventh team to reach the Super Bowl with 55-plus sacks. The previous six all won.
The collection of Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead is a defensive front unlike any Mahomes has seen this season. And the Niners' linebacker corps - with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw leading the way - is also at full strength following the return of Kwon Alexander from a chest injury.
San Francisco's front seven possesses the speed and talent to get after the quarterback, and that's the 49ers' only hope to stop Mahomes. His passing grade drops from 90.5 to 69.8 when under pressure, according to PFF. Only 12 of his 34 regular-season touchdown passes came when he was pressured.
A returning player has also spurred the Chiefs' defensive front. With defensive end Chris Jones back in the lineup after missing the divisional round, Kansas City's defense registered seven pressures and three sacks against the Titans, pressuring Ryan Tannehill on nearly 40% of his dropbacks when Jones was on the field, according to Zebra Technologies. The group notched only one pressure when Jones was on the sideline.
Luckily for Kansas City, Jones professes to be 1,000% ready for a full role in the Super Bowl.
Advantage: 49ers
Secondary
Richard Sherman has allowed a passer rating of just 36.4 in coverage this season, including the 49ers' two playoff games. Throwing the ball away on every snap would result in a 39.6 passer rating, according to PFF.
It's no secret Sherman locks down the left side. He followed Davante Adams to the right side for just two plays in the conference championship. Like many of the passers Sherman faced in the regular season, Aaron Rodgers decided against throwing at him until the game was out of hand in the second half.
Will Mahomes use the same game plan? Or will he test the Pro Bowl corner? Sherman has the football IQ, but he lacks the foot speed to keep up with Hill, Watkins, Robinson, and Hardman.
Safety Tyrann Mathieu is the Chiefs' stud in the secondary, and he's led a late turnaround of the team's pass defense. But the 49ers employ perhaps the best cover corner of the past decade.
Advantage: 49ers
Special teams
Of the two clubs, only Chiefs special-teamers Mecole Hardman and Harrison Butker received All-Pro votes. Hardman was elected to the second team as a kick returner.
But little has been asked of Kansas City's special teams during the playoffs. With the offense needing to come back from large deficits, Butker has attempted just one field goal this postseason, and punter Dustin Colquitt has seen the field only three times per game.
Conversely, Robbie Gould has been a busy place-kicker for the Niners, including nailing a season-long 54-yard kick in the conference championship.
However, Hardman's game-changing ability creates an advantage. His 58-yard kick return sparked the Chiefs' comeback from a 24-0 hole against the Texans in the divisional round. He's the ultimate X-factor.
Advantage: Chiefs
Coaching
Two offensive masterminds do battle for the Lombardi Trophy. Both are trying to change their career narrative and erase Super Bowl heartbreak suffered at the hands of the New England Patriots.
Andy Reid, the senior of the two head coaches, last appeared in the Super Bowl 15 years ago when his Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Patriots by three points. He hadn't advanced past the conference championship round in the 14 seasons since.
Kyle Shanahan was behind the Atlanta Falcons' offense that took a 28-3 lead against the Patriots in Super Bowl LI, only to relinquish it in devastating fashion.
One of the two savants will finally reach the mountaintop.
While they each lead dynamic offenses, the 49ers own the defensive edge, both in talent and coaching.
Advantage: 49ers