Best bets to win Super Bowl MVP

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Our team gives out their best bets to win Super Bowl LIV Most Valuable Player.

Thomas Casale

George Kittle (16-1)

This is a tight game on paper and it's hard to envision anyone other than even-money favorite Patrick Mahomes being named MVP if the Kansas City Chiefs win. The value lies with the San Francisco 49ers, and the guy I like is Kittle.

I've been writing about Kittle so much this week that people are going to think we're related. He has a mouth-watering matchup against a defense that already struggled to stop tight ends - it allowed 6.1 receptions and 60.9 yards per game, ninth-worst in the NFL - and will be without starting safety Juan Thornhill. Thornhill was one of the top pass-defending safeties in the league, allowing just 0.22 yards per coverage snap - the sixth-fewest in the NFL - before getting injured in Week 17, according to PFF.

With Jimmy Garoppolo attempting only 27 passes in two playoff wins, Kittle has been more focused on run blocking. Expect that to change. Kittle saw at least eight targets in half of his games this season, finishing with six or more receptions 11 times.

C Jackson Cowart

Nick Bosa (18-1)

As mentioned above, you can basically rule out every Chiefs player not named Mahomes because they aren't winning this game unless he plays well. But, as noted, there simply isn't any value on him. Count me out.

Instead, my money is on Nick Bosa, the Niners' most complete and disruptive player on their vaunted defensive line. If Mahomes struggles, there's a strong chance the credit belongs to Bosa, who will be playing in his hometown of Miami. Two of the last six Super Bowl MVPs have been defenders, and Bosa has the talent and narrative angle to cash as a relative long shot.

Alex Kolodziej

Nick Bosa (18-1)

Good luck trying to pinpoint which 49ers offensive player will break out with the way San Francisco distributes the ball.

Therefore, I, too, am going with Bosa, who has a decent matchup against the left side of Kansas City's line - I expect him to avoid Mitchell Schwartz, who graded out as the fourth-best tackle in the league by PFF. Considering the number of times Mahomes drops back, regardless of game script, I think the opportunities will be there for the edge rusher to make some splash plays.

Alex Moretto

Deebo Samuel (25-1)

I'm also looking to the 49ers, and I was shocked to see how far down the explosive Samuel landed. This is the sort of game and stage built for a guy with his skill set.

Kyle Shanahan is the best in the business at scheming the ball into the hands of his playmakers, and there's no one else on this 49ers offense with the type of game-breaking ability that Samuel offers. He hasn't had a big postseason because the 49ers haven't needed him yet, but they will here. This contest should play out a lot like their regular-season finale against the Seattle Seahawks, in which Samuel topped 100 yards through the air and added another 30, plus a touchdown, on the ground.

The potential of a few big plays makes 25-1 too lucrative to pass up.