2020 NFL win totals: Value on Titans, Packers in opening odds

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Days after winning their first Super Bowl in 50 years, the Kansas City Chiefs opened with the highest win total (11.5) for the 2020 NFL season. However, the second-highest total doesn't belong to the runner-up San Francisco 49ers.

That honor goes to the Baltimore Ravens (11), who won an NFL-best 14 games in 2019 before a shocking loss in the divisional round. The Niners are tied with the New England Patriots for the third-highest total at 10.5, with the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles both slated for 10 wins.

As for the other side, the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, and Washington Redskins are all tied at 5.5 wins, a full victory behind the group of teams above them on the list. All three squads finished below that mark in 2019, even with Miami's surprising finish to the year.

The value on these early odds isn't at the top or bottom but rather in the glut of teams that could spring in either direction from the middle. Here is a full list of win totals for the 2020 season, with three early candidates to go over or under their projected mark.

Over

Tennessee Titans (8.5)

The Titans won nine games in each of head coach Mike Vrabel's first two campaigns and went 7-3 last year in the regular season with starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who led his squad to the AFC Championship Game by beating two of the top-four teams on this list. So why is this number so low?

Tannehill and late-season king Derrick Henry are both free agents, and defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired. Expect the two players to return, though, and while Pees is renowned in coaching circles, Tennessee's offense carried the load last year. There's enough on this roster to endorse a strong play on the over.

Los Angeles Chargers (7.5)

One of the best ways to find positive regression candidates is to look at a team's record in close games, which tends to be fluid from year to year. The Chargers finished 2-9 in games decided by one possession in 2019, their worst mark since going 1-8 in 2016.

Philip Rivers is likely gone, but Los Angeles is loaded with young or prime-age talent on both sides of the ball to complement a new quarterback. The Chargers are as short as 25-1 at some shops to win the title, which suggests this win total is a bit deflated from expectation. Expect a bounce-back effort just two years removed from a 12-win campaign.

Carolina Panthers (6.5)

The Panthers were the second-worst team by DVOA last year thanks to brutal production on both sides of the ball, but the offense deserved more of the blame. The defense allowed the fifth-most points per drive, though it was dealt the third-worst starting field position of any unit. That's on the offense.

No team should be that bad with Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel at its disposal. New head coach Matt Rhule will inject some life into a high-upside group that likely won't rely on backup quarterbacks for an entire season. Bet on improved coaching and QB play to redirect a talent-rich roster.

Under

Green Bay Packers (9.5)

Just as close games can be a barometer for positive regression, they can sniff out the fraudulent teams, too. And the Packers certainly qualify as the latter after finishing with an NFL-best 7-1 record in one-score contests in 2019.

Green Bay was the second-worst 13-3 team in DVOA history, which dates back to 1985, and that was with one of the easiest schedules in the league. A first-place finish in the NFC North last year means a tougher slate this season, which should knock the Packers back to reality.

Atlanta Falcons (8)

We keep wanting to believe the Falcons will turn things around. Time after time, they disappoint. Atlanta has failed to top eight wins in five of the last seven seasons, and back-to-back seven-win campaigns reveal how limited this team is under head coach Dan Quinn.

The Falcons' tenuous cap situation means the team likely won't have enough money to fill the holes in a defense that was a serious liability for most of 2019. Atlanta ended the year on a high note, but too many of those wins came in favorable circumstances to provide proof the team is carrying any momentum into next season.

Chicago Bears (8)

Last year's defense was stout as always and the offensive skill position talent is promising. The Bears' issue is Mitchell Trubisky, who will likely start the majority of games if only for financial reasons. So, what change is coming that will suddenly reinvigorate this team?

A lousy offensive line doesn't help matters and Trubisky isn't the guy to create with pressure in his face. That likely means another losing season in the Midway.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.