Fantasy: 3 free agents destined to disappoint with new team

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With all the excitement that comes with free agency, it's easy to forget that most players signing deals will ultimately let their new teams down.

After outlining players we expect to gain fantasy value in free agency, it's time to identify players who are primed to disappoint.

Austin Hooper

The Falcons made it clear they plan to let Hooper test the free-agent market, even though he's a 25-year-old tight end coming off a career-best season (75 catches, 787 yards, and six touchdowns).

He hit those marks despite missing three games and playing the final month hurt. Prior to spraining his MCL in Week 10, Hooper was the top scoring fantasy tight end in all formats, on pace for 104 catches, 1,182 yards, and 10 end-zone trips.

So why are the Falcons not locking him up to a long-term deal?

Perhaps it's because their front office knows Hooper was a product of his environment. With receivers like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley drawing all the defensive attention, Hooper became a safety valve on an offense almost always in comeback mode. By the end of the regular season, Atlanta led the NFL in pass attempts, facilitating Hooper's heavy usage.

Unlike George Kittle, Travis Kelce, or even someone like Darren Waller, Hooper doesn't have the athleticism to make him stand out at the position. As Sam Monson explains for ESPN, Hooper graded well below most quality receiving tight ends when he was targeted in single coverage.

He's closer to average than elite. More role player than star.

However, as one of the best tight ends available, Hooper's almost certain to command a big-money contract, one that comes with high expectations.

Rumored interest from the Packers and Bears doesn't inspire much confidence, since they've struggled to get tight ends going in their offenses in recent years. Both teams finished with over 100 fewer passing attempts than the Falcons in 2019.

Unless Hooper finds a situation similar to Atlanta's - which is rare - he's likely going to let down fans of his new club and fantasy owners.

Tom Brady

Whenever Brady's ranked outside of my top-10 fantasy quarterbacks, there's more than a few readers who voice their displeasure.

The love for TB12 is real, but fantasy managers need to look beyond the name on the back of the jersey and consider what they're investing in when they select him - especially when Rob Gronkowski isn't part of the package.

As outlined last offseason: Over the previous nine years, Brady played 126 games with Gronk and 36 without him, including playoffs. Below, you can see the difference in Brady's numbers when averaged out over a 16-game pace.

In a full 16-game 2019 campaign, Brady completed 60.8% of his passes and threw for 4,057 yards and only 24 touchdowns, finishing as QB12 - his second straight year outside the top 10.

Brady's passer rating was below league average and his 6.6 yards per attempt was the second-lowest mark of his career.

You can argue the Patriots did him a disservice by not stacking the pass-catching corps, but are we sure his next destination will have better weapons?

While the odds still favor a return to the Pats, Vegas has the Titans and Raiders near the top of the list of potential landing spots - two teams with limited receiving threats and strong rushing attacks.

Clubs with stronger supporting casts like the Chargers and Buccaneers also make the list, but putting your faith behind a 43-year-old quarterback (Brady will celebrate his birthday in the summer) with declining numbers is a dangerous game to play at the deepest position in fantasy.

Even if Brady stays in New England, you should set your sights on a quarterback who offers more upside. Don't settle for fringe QB1 numbers when you can replicate them by streaming throughout the year.

Emmanuel Sanders

Jimmy Garoppolo overthrowing Sanders late in Super Bowl LIV will be one of those plays 49ers fans will never forget. Had the duo connected, we might be talking about San Francisco as champions and Sanders as the big-game hero. Just a little Quentin Tarantino-style revisionist history.

Sadly for the 49ers, that's not how it all went down, and Sanders enters free agency with no guarantee he'll return to the team that traded for him in October.

While Sanders has expressed an interest in remaining with the club, San Francisco is near the bottom of the league in available cap space. With a slew of young receiver talent on the roster and a deep crop of incoming rookie wideouts, the 49ers should be able to move forward without him.

There's also the fact Sanders was outplayed by rookie Deebo Samuel in the second half of the year and throughout the postseason. A rib injury may have been a factor, but the soon-to-be 33-year-old has now dealt with ailments in each of the past two campaigns, including an Achilles tear in 2018.

Three years removed from his last 1,000-yard effort, Sanders is still a solid contributor, but not someone you want to rely on for consistent fantasy numbers. His best days are likely behind him, and you shouldn't pay a premium for past production.