Super Bowl odds update: Biggest movers after 1st wave of free agency
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If you had an idea a few weeks ago about which team you wanted to bet to win the Super Bowl, you might want to take a fresh look at the oddsboard.
Since the week before free agency began, 26 of the NFL's 32 teams have seen their futures odds change, including dramatic moves for a few potential contenders. Here's a look at how the odds have shifted since March 9, with notes on 12 teams that saw the biggest adjustments:
| TEAM | ODDS (3/9) | ODDS (3/27) |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +450 | +450 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +700 | +500 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +800 | +1000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +1200 | +1400 |
| New England Patriots | +1200 | +3000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2000 | +3000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1200 | +1400 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1800 | +2000 |
| Green Bay Packers | +2000 | +2000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +2000 | +2000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2500 | +4000 |
| Chicago Bears | +3000 | +4000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +5000 | +4000 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +5000 | +4000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +4000 | +2000 |
| Houston Texans | +4000 | +8000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +4000 | +6000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +3000 | +3000 |
| Buffalo Bills | +4000 | +3000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +5000 | +6000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3000 | +4000 |
| Denver Broncos | +6000 | +5000 |
| New York Jets | +10000 | +6000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +4000 | +1400 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +8000 | +4000 |
| New York Giants | +8000 | +5000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +10000 | +30000 |
| Detroit Lions | +8000 | +10000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +10000 | +10000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +20000 | +30000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +20000 | +6000 |
| Washington Redskins | +20000 | +20000 |
Trending up
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4000 to +1400)
You don't need me to tell you what happened here, but I will, anyway: Tom Brady is in town. As we explained earlier this week, Brady's presence alone changes everything for the Buccaneers, who are legitimate - if perhaps slightly overpriced - contenders.
Indianapolis Colts (+4000 to +2000)
The Colts should be one of the most improved teams in the league next year thanks to two major moves: the swapping Jacoby Brissett for Philip Rivers and the trade for All-Pro DeForest Buckner to shore up a lousy pass rush. Those two fit seamlessly into a roster ready for contention.
Arizona Cardinals (+8000 to +4000)
Unlike the Bucs and Colts, the Cardinals didn't need to make a quarterback change to slash their odds in half. Instead, their acquisition of superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins for what felt like two nickels caught oddsmakers' attention and makes Arizona's offense a must-watch in 2020.
New York Giants (+8000 to +5000)
The Giants were among the league's most active teams in attempting to fix issues from a year ago, namely with the signings of corner James Bradberry and linebacker Blake Martinez. The jury's out on whether those players will significantly improve last season's suspect defense, but the betting market respects the overhaul.
Miami Dolphins (+20000 to +6000)
The Dolphins' roster looked about as bad as possible on paper last year, so a busy free-agency period headlined by the splashy signings of corner Byron Jones and linebacker Kyle Van Noy rightfully forced a major shift in their title price in 2020.
Trending down
New England Patriots (+1200 to +3000)
The Patriots have lost so many key figures on offense, defense, and from within their coaching ranks during a tumultuous offseason that it's a bit surprising their odds haven't moved even more. The 2020 campaign should easily be Bill Belichick's toughest coaching job.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000 to +3000)
The Steelers did very little to improve a roster that, despite having a well-graded defense, wasn't strong enough to make the playoffs last year. There wasn't much to suggest a move in either direction, so perhaps bettors just aren't biting after a dud of a free-agency period in Pittsburgh.
Los Angeles Rams (+2500 to +4000)
Todd Gurley stole the spotlight from the rest of the Rams' offseason departures, but a drain of defensive talent is arguably more concerning for a Los Angeles team that relied on its overpaid but talented stop unit to win games in 2019. Another cap-clearing deal is looming, which means this price could be on the move.
Houston Texans (+4000 to +8000)
As if giving away Hopkins wasn't enough, the Texans also let promising defensive lineman D.J. Reader walk and did very little to address the gaping holes left by both players. Deshaun Watson should win MVP if Houston manages to win the division.
Tennessee Titans (+4000 to +6000)
The Titans traded away Jurrell Casey for pocket change and saw a number of other contributors leave in free agency, so this adjustment seems fair. Still, the team did retain its two stars from last year's playoff run in Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, so a move to also-ran pricing is probably too harsh an adjustment for Tennesse.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.