Risers and fallers: Best over/under bets for top NFL draft prospects

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There's a certain allure that comes with predicting which teams will draft which players - perhaps it's the hefty payouts, or maybe it's the ego stroke.

But a quick scan of mock drafts from past years - even from the most plugged-in experts - will reveal that doing so is often an impossible task. Teams are reluctant to leak info and are professionals when it comes to throwing others off their scents.

Instead, we have a much better chance of formulating a likely range for when each player will go. Here are the best over/under bets for all of 2020's top prospects, excluding the almost guaranteed top two picks, Joe Burrow and Chase Young.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama (O/U 3.5)

The Athletic's Dane Brugler said it best in his mock draft (which has Tua at No. 6): "We aren't talking enough about Tagovailoa and the potential of him dropping farther than this due to the durability and medical concerns."

Indeed, teams will be wary of using a high pick on - let alone using precious draft capital to move up for - a guy with significant injury concerns who wasn't able to work out in-house.

Pick: Over 3.5 (-300)

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon (O/U 5.5)

We're hearing rumblings that the Miami Dolphins might address their offensive line with the No. 5 pick and wait on a quarterback, but I'm not buying it. Teams are raving about Herbert's professionalism, he killed it at the Senior Bowl, and he apparently impressed in interviews. I feel strongly that Miami is ready to invest.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-120)

Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State (O/U 4.5)

The market should be too soft for the Detroit Lions to trade out of the No. 3 pick, meaning it's overwhelmingly likely that one of Okudah or Derrick Brown winds up in Detroit. At even money, you have to take the under here, and you can even hedge with Brown being selected third after Burrow and Young at +600.

Pick: Under 4.5 (-110)

Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson (O/U 6.5)

You can bank on the New York Giants taking an offensive lineman, which means this will likely come down to whether the Los Angeles Chargers nab Simmons or shop elsewhere. Given the personnel on that Chargers defense and the presence of Derwin James, mocking Simmons to L.A. just doesn't make sense. Don't be shocked if he slips out of the top 10.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-120)

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma (O/U 12.5)

The way I look at it, there are three ways for Lamb to come in under this number - the New York Jets at 11, the Las Vegas Raiders at 12, or if a team like the Philadelphia Eagles trades up to nab him. I'd put the odds of one of those happening closer to -250 than -140.

Pick: Under 12.5 (-140)

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama (O/U 11.5)

If we see a team trade up for a wide receiver, all signs point to it being Lamb. The Jets are a strong trade-down candidate from their current spot at 11th overall. But if New York stands pat, Lamb or an offensive lineman will be their likely route. Jeudy's ceiling feels like the No. 12 pick.

Pick: Over 11.5 (-140)

Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama (O/U 13.5)

This might be the total on this list I feel least confident in. There's just too much variance here. Ruggs could go as early as the 11th overall pick or as late as the early 20s. All it will take is for one team to fall in love with his speed.

Raiders coach Jon Gruden certainly loves these take-the-top-off-a-defense guys, and the San Francisco 49ers could use a dynamic downfield threat following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders. Both teams are set to pick inside the top 13. However, Lamb and Jeudy are more Mike Mayock's type, while the 49ers are reportedly looking to trade down. For those reasons, I'm leaning "over" here.

Pick: Over 13.5 (-115)

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State (O/U 19.5)

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Tua falls into the early teens, and that wouldn't be good for Love's draft stock. The quarterback market is a lot cooler this year than in drafts past, and the sheer fact that Jameis Winston and Cam Newton remain free agents speaks to that point. I think Love is a lot likelier to go early in Round 2 than before the No. 20 pick.

Pick: Over 19.5 (-160)

D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia (O/U 32.5)

Front offices are reluctant to spend first-round picks on running backs these days, and if there's a team at the back end of Round 1 that will take a flier on one, are we sure it'll be Swift? I'm not.

Pick: Over 32.5 (-115)

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin (O/U 37.5)

One runner I could see teams falling in love with is Taylor - a workhorse and a human wrecking ball. He's my pick to be the first running back off the board, which should happen in the 26-36 range.

Pick: Under 37.5 (+100)

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Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.