Dolphins 2020 player props: Mike Gesicki demands your attention
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I'd consider 2019 a small win for the Miami Dolphins' offense.
Although Miami finished last in the AFC East and ranked No. 27 in DVOA in a rebuilding year, there were positives to build off.
Wide receiver DeVante Parker flashed his potential, racking up career highs with 72 catches, 1,002 yards, and nine touchdowns. Ryan Fitzpatrick was perfectly reckless, stepping in as a bridge and throwing for 3,529 yards and 20 touchdowns, the most since his 2015 season. Call it a consolation prize, but the Dolphins were surprisingly entertaining despite mostly being uncompetitive.
Now, the Fins have their franchise quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa, not to mention a well-rounded, young skill corps to boot. It could be another year of playing catch up for Miami in 2020, but there's a lot to like about the offense's potential.
Here, we'll dive into the 2020 player props, featuring one of the best tight ends you don't know about.
Mike Gesicki - O/U 57.5 receptions
Over: -115
Under: -115
Had Gesicki played on a better team or in a bigger market, we'd be talking about him more. After posting 22 catches for 302 yards and zero scores as a rookie, the tight end put up a stat line of 51-570-5 in 2019.
Those numbers won't wow you, but context is important. Gesicki was the NFL's fifth-unluckiest pass-catcher, posting a 43% uncatchable target rate. He recorded 50-plus catches on 89 targets despite almost every pass being a coin flip on whether or not it'll be in his vicinity - that's pretty damn impressive.
Second time in as many weeks where Fitz misses Gesicki in the end zone. That’s 0/2 in the red zone from the league’s #3 ranked RZ unit.
— Travis Wingfield (@WingfieldNFL) December 8, 2019
To exceed his projected 2020 reception total, Gesicki only needs seven more catches than last season. This number is criminally low.
Pick: Over
Mike Gesicki - O/U 650.5 receiving yards
It doesn't happen with every single case study, but if you like Gesicki's catches, you should take a closer look at his yards prop, too.
Not only did Miami quarterbacks have a tough time pinpointing Gesicki, but they also struggled to throw the football in general.
The Dolphins led the league with a 39% uncatchable target rate on balls thrown 20-plus yards down the field. Gesicki ranked third among tight ends in deep targets (13) and 10th in completed air yards (397). If Gesicki had received better throws on two or three more of his deep routes, he would've likely seen closer to 700 receiving yards in 2019.
Pro quarterbacks shouldn't miss a 6-6, athletic tight end as frequently as Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen did a year ago. Barring a significant decrease in targets, or the same type of luck - or lack thereof - as last season, Gesicki will make quick work of both of his 2020 projections.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.