Steelers win total preview: One of the AFC's most dangerous teams
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Head coach Mike Tomlin nearly led the Pittsburgh Steelers to a playoff berth without his starting quarterback last season. How could the franchise not be on bettors' radars in 2020?
Here, we'll preview the Steelers' win total for the upcoming season and see where the value is.
| How Many Games Will the Steelers Win in 2020? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 9 | -110 |
| Under 9 | -110 |
A look back
Alright, the good news: not many defenses performed better than Pittsburgh's in 2019.
The Steelers finished No. 3 in defense DVOA (-18.7%) behind two powerhouses - San Francisco and New England - and had a clear edge over the fourth-best unit (Baltimore, -12.7%). Pittsburgh recorded the second-most interceptions (20) and a plus-8 turnover margin while also pacing the league in sacks.
Now, time for the bad news: Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending elbow injury in Week 2 and the wheels fell off.
The Steelers somehow finished last in the league in offense DVOA a year after clocking in at No. 6. Despite employing a veteran offensive line and a bright skill corps, the unit never stood a chance behind the quarterback tandem of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges: Pittsburgh finished No. 30 in both yards per rush and yards per completion.
Buy low or sell high?
Not all the advanced metrics are on the Steelers' side for 2020. Estimated wins thought Pittsburgh deserved 7.3 victories last season, while Pythagorean wins called for 7.6 - both worse than the actual 8-8 record.
Although the Steelers are technically regression candidates, a healthy Roethlisberger changes everything.
No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster certainly felt the effects of Roethlisberger's absence. After posting 111 catches for 1,426 yards and seven scores in '19, those numbers dipped to 42 receptions, 552 yards, and three touchdowns over an injury-riddled campaign. Fellow receivers James Washington and Diontae Johnson also missed out on a year's worth of chemistry with Big Ben.
However, there's plenty of skill on this roster, and the offense almost always flourishes under Tomlin. Pittsburgh has no shortage of potential.
Strength of schedule
The Steelers have to capitalize on a light schedule. They have the second-easiest route if we use last year's standings, and the ninth-easiest if we factor in their opponents' projected 2020 win totals.
Best bet
The Ravens set the standard in the AFC North, but the Steelers aren't too far behind. They were better than their rivals defensively last season, they just need the offense to catch up a bit.
With Roethlisberger back in the fold, a top-10 offensive line, and a dynamic skill corps, Pittsburgh should improve on last year's record and crush its 2020 win total.
Pick: Over 9
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.