Chiefs win total preview: Super Bowl hangover awaits
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Few teams have been as consistent over the last five years as the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 57 games with a Super Bowl title during that stretch. That doesn't mean they've been flawless, though, and a few major weaknesses could spell trouble in 2020.
| WINS | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Over 11.5 | -125 |
| Under 11.5 | +105 |
A look back
In case you haven't heard, the Chiefs were pretty good last year. After a rough stretch midway through the campaign, Kansas City finished the regular season with six straight wins en route to a second straight 12-win season and fourth consecutive AFC West title.
The Chiefs' offense wasn't quite as explosive as it was in 2019, but their defense picked it up down the stretch, allowing 21.6 points per game during a nine-game win streak that carried into the playoffs. And despite a tight budget after the Patrick Mahomes deal, they were able to retain the core of their title team heading into 2020.
Defense in progress
There's no questioning the Chiefs' offense, which brings back every relevant receiver from last year and replaces Damien Williams (opt-out) with LSU star Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who's an even better fit.
The issues are on the other side, where even the return of Chris Jones won't be enough to remedy a run defense that ranked 29th in DVOA last year and 32nd the year before, per Football Outsiders. We've already seen the recipe for beating this team: Run up the middle and bleed the clock so Mahomes doesn't have time to hurt you.
The problem for the Chiefs is that teams can beat them over the top, too. Their secondary was much improved last year behind standout safety Juan Thornhill, but the rookie tore his ACL in Week 17 and could be slow to return to form this year. Without him, the defense nearly coughed up each of Kansas City's three playoff wins before Mahomes' heroics bailed his team out.
Regression looms
Even if the Chiefs can shore up their defense, it's simply hard to win 12 games in back-to-back years. Only 19 of the last 60 teams to win 12-plus games did it the next year, according to PFF, while Kansas City is aiming to pull it off for the third consecutive season.
The Super Bowl hangover also looms. Seven of the last 11 teams to win the Super Bowl had a worse record the following year, and only two improved from one season to the next. The Chiefs are working on thin margins after consecutive 12-win campaigns, so a lousy stretch could spell the end for over bettors.
And then there's the competition. The Chiefs have gone an astounding 27-3 against divisional foes since 2015, including 6-0 a year ago. That should change this season, as all four AFC West teams have playoff ambitions with 10-win upside if everything breaks right.
Best bet
A lot has to go Kansas City's way to hit this number. Mahomes has to stay healthy, which is a legitimate question mark after last year. The defense has to regain its late-season form without the catalyst that sparked that run. And the offense has to sustain an elite pace once again.
As we saw last year, that can come crashing down in a hurry. There's simply too much risk to lay the over price on the highest win total in the league.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.