Seahawks win total preview: Wilson's miracles won't last
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Every time you think they're dead, they rise again. The Seattle Seahawks entered last season with a win total of nine - their second straight year below 10 - but they ripped off 11 victories while threatening for the top seed in the NFC.
Can they exceed expectations once again?
| Wins | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -105 |
| Under 9.5 | -115 |
A look back
In many ways, 2019 was just like any season for Seattle. For the seventh time in Russell Wilson's eight years as a starter, the Seahawks won 10-plus games while finishing in the top two in the NFC West. And, yet again, Wilson did the heavy lifting, slotting into second in MVP voting with an NFL-best four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives.
There were some signs of decline last year, though. The defense allowed the most points since Pete Carroll's first year with the team in 2010, and Seattle's point differential (+7) was its worst since 2011 and the lowest of any squad with a positive differential in 2019.
Patchwork solutions
In some ways, the Seahawks' roster has improved from a year ago. They coughed up serious draft capital to acquire All-Pro safety Jamal Adams, who should shore up an inconsistent secondary. They also brought in 35-year-old Greg Olsen to give Wilson another weapon.
Yet Seattle faced bigger issues this offseason that largely went unaddressed. The Seahawks fielded one of the league's worst pass rushes last year, and that's before letting Jadeveon Clowney walk in free agency. There isn't a legitimate replacement for him on the roster, as most of Seattle's interior linemen are either unproven or better suited for run defense.
The team also brought in five new offensive linemen this offseason to address its most glaring weaknesses for years. That still won't be enough. All five are either rookies or low-budget options who don't project to be difference-makers for a unit that's sorely in need.
An unsustainable record
Seattle always seems to be on the brink of regressing, but that's never been more evident and seemingly unavoidable than it is now.
In 2019, the Seahawks were 9-2 in games decided by seven points or less - the best record in that spot since Sports Database started tracking NFL stats in 1989. For context, the team had never gone better than 5-3 in that situation under Carroll.
How about those comeback victories? Seattle won five games in 2019 when trailing by seven-plus points, and three games when trailing by 10-plus points, tying for the NFL lead in both cases while also establishing new highs during the Carroll era. Wilson leading the charge helps, but consistently erasing leads is a largely unsustainable way to win, even by the Seahawks' standards.
Wilson was incredible last year, but he's due for a regression, too. His 31:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio was among the best in NFL history, and it was well outside of his roughly 3:1 career mark entering 2019. If he doesn't play at the same MVP level, this team will struggle to reach 10 wins in a tough division.
Lastly, home-field advantage won't be on the Seahawks' side nearly as much this year. Since Wilson took over in 2012, Seattle holds the league's second-best home record (53-16) and has never posted a losing record at home. But with fans barred from attending games for at least the team's first three home contests, the NFL's best home-field advantage will be neutralized.
Best bet
Every year, I fade the Seahawks as a 10-win team. Every year, they prove me wrong.
But past results don't breed future winners, and Seattle is trending in the wrong direction. If everything goes right, this is a 10-win club, but there are far too many unsolved questions to ride the over.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.