Best bets to lead NFL in passing yards: Buy Brady, Rivers in new systems
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With just over a week until the NFL season begins, we're running through our best bets to lead the league in key statistical categories - including some appealing long shots. Let's start with the passing leaders, among which there's a ton of value if you can look past Patrick Mahomes at the top.
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +400 |
| Matt Ryan | +500 |
| Jared Goff | +700 |
| Dak Prescott | +800 |
| Tom Brady | +900 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1400 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +2000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2000 |
| Philip Rivers | +2200 |
| Drew Brees | +2500 |
| Kyler Murray | +2500 |
| Carson Wentz | +2500 |
| Russell Wilson | +2500 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2800 |
| Daniel Jones | +3000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3000 |
| Joe Burrow | +3300 |
| Kirk Cousins | +3300 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +3300 |
| Sam Darnold | +4000 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | +5000 |
| Nick Foles | +5000 |
| Drew Lock | +5000 |
| Gardner Minshew | +5000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +5000 |
| Cam Newton | +5000 |
| Derek Carr | +6000 |
| Josh Allen | +6600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +6600 |
| Dwayne Haskins | +8000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +8000 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | +15000 |
| Tyrod Taylor | +15000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | +15000 |
| Justin Herbert | +20000 |
Tom Brady (+900)
Brady is no stranger to leading the league in passing yards, having done it three times and as recently as 2017. He still finished seventh in 2019 with 4,057 yards despite a lack of offensive weapons and some declining play.
Jameis Winston led the league in passing yards last season (5,109) in Bruce Arians' first year at the helm for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now imagine what the coach can do with Brady in that loaded offense. This isn't a sexy price, but it's one worth paying.
Philip Rivers (+2200)
Rivers has finished in the top five in seven of his 14 seasons as a starter, including fourth place last year with a 4,615-yard effort. Now he heads to the Indianapolis Colts, and head coach Frank Reich - who coached Rivers for three years with the then-San Diego Chargers - could coax a career year from the 38-year-old in his dynamic passing scheme.
Reich essentially laid the blueprint for the Chargers' passing attack the last seven years, though Los Angeles never could offer the protection in the pocket that Rivers will have this year. The Colts will likely rush it more than his Chargers teams ever did, but there's too much upside not to take a shot.
Kyler Murray (+2500)
There's a strong correlation between pass attempts and the yards leader, and few quarterbacks will sling it this year as often as Murray will. As a rookie, the Arizona Cardinals signal-caller finished ninth in attempts (542), but a so-so receiving corps limited his yardage upside.
That won't be an issue again with DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, and another year in Kliff Kingsbury's system should help Murray acclimate to the extreme passing volume that the Air Raid offense calls for. With all the momentum behind Arizona's passing attack, this price should be 20-1 or shorter.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.