Week 1 player prop bets: Pump the brakes on Joe Burrow

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We've covered plenty of angles for NFL Week 1, including top bets, teasers, and more. Now it's time to dive into the player prop market.

Here are the props we're going with for the opening slate.

Joe Burrow under 238.5 passing yards

I played the over on Andy Dalton's passing yards at an unhealthy rate when he was in Cincinnati. The Bengals' offense has been playing catch-up since 2016 and there's just enough firepower to make them relevant.

Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow could put up some stupid numbers if the stars align, but I'm selling him in the opener.

Even without Derwin James, the Chargers have one of the most elite secondaries in the NFL. They were No. 5 against the pass and No. 3 in explosive pass rate in 2019.

I'm fading the LSU product in what'll be his first live action as a pro.

Anthony Miller over 39.5 receiving yards

I cannot overstate how off I think this number is around the marketplace.

I get the Bears are limited through the air, but Anthony Miller's being treated like an afterthought in the skill corps. After Allen Robinson, the second-year receiver should see a larger share of targets, especially without Taylor Gabriel and others in the fold this year.

Miller has a terrific matchup against a Lions defense that was No. 27 in explosive pass rate allowed last year.

Derek Carr under 271.5 passing yards

I wasn't particularly high on the Raiders' passing offense coming into the year, so you can guess my reaction when Tyrell Williams - last year's team leader in TD receptions - hit the shelf two weeks ago with a season-ending injury.

Carolina's defense was far worse against the run (No. 32 DVOA defense) than it was the pass (No. 12) a season ago. With Las Vegas laying points and running back Josh Jacobs likely in for a slew of touches, go under on this inflated number.

Gardner Minshew over 21.5 completions

I wish I could bet the number of rushing plays a team calls per game, I'd put some serious coin on the Jaguars to go under the total against the Colts.

Jacksonville's an eight-point underdog, a team that recently cut its starting running back. How does the coaching staff not let Gardner Minshew go wild?

Minshew completed 27 in the season finale against Indianapolis last season. He has a revamped receiving corps that'll help him bag at least 22 on Sunday.

Teddy Bridgewater over 256.5 passing yards

I love the matchup for Teddy Bridgewater in Week 1. He gets a Raiders secondary that gave up the second-most explosive plays through the air in 2019.

Although the first-year Panthers QB isn't a true gunslinger (7.2 career Y/A), he has plenty of weapons in the skill corps - namely D.J. Moore, Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel - who can all rack up yards after the catch.

This is a generous number on a player who should be throwing quite a bit. Go over the total.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.