NFL Week 3 survivor picks: Beware beleaguered Eagles vs. Burrow, Bengals
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We survived Week 2 thanks to the Titans, but it wasn't exactly comfortable. Gardner Minshew's upset potential has reached Ryan Fitzpatrick levels, and that's enough to scare me away for the foreseeable future.
Nonetheless, we are on to Week 3 - as are most with 14 of 16 favorites winning over the weekend - and there are some great spots we can exploit to help us reach October in our survivor pools.
Week 3 confidence ranking
Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:
| AWAY | HOME (SPREAD) | PICK (CR) |
|---|---|---|
| NY Jets | Indianapolis (-10) | IND (9) |
| Carolina | LA Chargers (-7) | LAC (8) |
| Detroit | Arizona (-6) | ARI (7) |
| Las Vegas | New England (-6) | NE (6) |
| Houston | Pittsburgh (-4) | PIT (6) |
| Tampa Bay | Denver (+6.5) | TB (4) |
| Tennessee | Minnesota (+3) | TEN (4) |
| Cincinnati | Philadelphia (-6) | PHI (3) |
| Washington | Cleveland (-7) | CLE (3) |
| Kansas City | Baltimore (-3.5) | BAL (3) |
| Miami | Jacksonville (-3) | MIA (2) |
| San Francisco | NY Giants (+4) | NYG (2) |
| Chicago | Atlanta (-3.5) | ATL (1) |
| LA Rams | Buffalo (-3) | LAR (1) |
| Dallas | Seattle (-5) | DAL (1) |
| Green Bay | New Orleans (-3) | GB (1) |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Author's pick: Indianapolis Colts
Are the Jets going to win a single game this year?
Against any other team this week, the Colts might have been on upset watch after losing Parris Campbell and Malik Hooker to injury. But against the Jets, there's little reason for concern. The loss of Campbell feels insignificant when the opponent is trotting out Braxton Berrios, Josh Malone, and Frank Gore as starters at the skill positions. With Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Chris Hogan nursing injuries, Sam Darnold must be looking at his receiver group wondering who he can actually target.
It's hard to envision a scenario in which this New York offense finds any sort of success moving the ball outside of garbage time. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL in both yards and points per play, and they now face a Colts defense that ranks first in the league in allowing just 4.4 yards per play and 14.5 first downs per game (the second-fewest is 18.5).
As if that's not enough, Indianapolis boasts the league's best offensive line and a rookie running back in Jonathan Taylor who already looks like a star. The Colts are also on the right side of the week's biggest coaching mismatch, with Frank Reich sure to add to Adam Gase's misery.
Avoid: Philadelphia Eagles
One of my biggest takeaways through two weeks is that the Eagles are simply not a good football team. Carson Wentz, who's consistently let off the hook by injuries to the offense, might be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in football. He has great physical tools, but his arm and mind are equally erratic. He failed to connect with open receivers on several occasions Sunday, either by missing his throws or simply not seeing them to begin with. The ability is there, but he can never seem to put it all together, and I'm getting very tired of waiting.
The Eagles' offense has stumbled to just 4.6 yards per play through the opening two weeks (tied with the Jets for 29th in the NFL) and ranks 29th in points per play - two spots below the Bengals. This could be a get-right spot for Philadelphia, but are we comfortable banking on that given what we've seen so far?
Cincinnati, meanwhile, has something special in Joe Burrow. The rookie hasn't been free of mistakes through the first two weeks of his pro career, but that's to be expected, and he's given Bengals fans plenty of reason to be excited. His competitive fire is infectious, as demonstrated by the tenacity of his teammates so far this season. Burrow has made some big-time throws in important moments and shown an ability to keep his team in games. He exudes confidence and has prime upset potential.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.