Week 4 player prop bets: All aboard the Justin Jefferson train
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Scoring is up and the league is letting the offenses run rampant. Let's hope that's the case again this Sunday, as our player prop card is loaded with overs.
Here's who will crush it in Week 4.
Justin Jefferson over 48.5 receiving yards
This is some serious disrespect on a receiver who's slowly gaining traction. Jefferson, the Vikings' first-round draft pick from this past spring, is coming off a breakout game in which he posted seven catches, 175 yards, and one touchdown.
Had it not been for a slow start to the season - Jefferson saw only three targets in each of the first two games - perhaps he'd be garnering more attention. Overall, the LSU product has hauled in 80% of the passes thrown his way and averaging a spectacular 20.4 yards per reception.
The Texans have played three efficient offenses to start the year - the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers - so they'll match up fine with the Vikings' receivers. However, this all comes down to game script and opportunities.
Houston's going to score on a Minnesota defense allowing 34 points per game on average; there's no way around it. Minnesota wants to feed running back Dalvin Cook, but I think they'll be forced to put the ball in quarterback Kirk Cousins' hands. He looked formidable for the first time all season last week against the Titans, and Jefferson's big-play ability was a key factor.
Expect Cousins to keep the rookie in the mix Sunday.
Ryan Fitzpatrick over 281.5 passing yards
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is the headliner in this matchup, but it's the signal-caller on the opposite sideline who's got my attention. Fitzpatrick could actually out-duel the MVP candidate on the score sheet Sunday.
In a way, Wilson's masked some of Seattle's flaws, namely a defense that's allowed 430.7 passing yards per game through the first three. For some context on how truly poor that is, the next worst defense has been the Falcons (350.3) and they're not even in the same stratosphere as Seattle's secondary, which has allowed the most yards per completion in the league (12.4).
That automatically pushes Fitzpatrick's stock up.
Fitzpatrick attempted just 20 passes in a blowout win over the Jaguars last week. However, in the previous two games as underdogs against the Bills and Patriots, Fitzpatrick averaged 38.5 attempts. He'll have to play catch-up against Wilson, who's orchestrated the league's No. 2 scoring offense.
Odell Beckham Jr.'s longest reception over 23.5 yards
The Browns' offense has come to life. After scoring six points in the opener, Cleveland's hung 69 combined in the last two weeks. The unit's No. 6 in the league in explosive play rate, and it certainly has the weapons to sustain that clip.
When the Browns take their shots downfield Sunday against the Cowboys, it'll be to Beckham Jr. He ranks No. 6 among receivers in target share and No. 5 in air yards share. OBJ is also getting 2.5 yards of separation per target, which is top 10 in the NFL.
He'll be a nightmare for the Dallas secondary, which has allowed both the fourth-most passing yards and points in the NFL.
(Odds source: theScore Bet).
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.