NFL Week 4 Pros vs Joes: Public riding Bills, Colts as road chalk
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Before you make your NFL bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which side other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing a busy Week 4 slate.
Buffalo Bills (-3, 52.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
For the first three weeks of the season, sharps have backed the Raiders in every spot. This week, they're staying away against the undefeated Bills, who are one of the most-bet teams of the week.
Buffalo is drawing 20 times as much money as of Friday, though the game has yet to move off the key number of 3. That number could be on the rise if this pace continues, as parlay bettors are almost exclusively targeting the Bills after last week's dramatic win over the Rams.
"From our perspective in Vegas, we’re going to need the hometown team," Rood said.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43.5) at Chicago Bears
The only game to move off a key number as of Friday night is this one, which has pitted wiseguys and public bettors entering the weekend.
The Bears opened as 3-point underdogs despite their 3-0 start, but sharps hammered that line and forced oddsmakers to shorten it to 2.5. Since then, public bettors have feasted on the Colts, who have covered four of their last six as favorites.
Parlay bettors are also playing Indianapolis as short chalk, and Rood expects enough money on that side to offset the early run of sharp money on the home 'dogs.
"That’s a game that will probably be fairly balanced come game time," Rood said. "And we could even need the Bears."
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 51.5) at Carolina Panthers
Another sharp target this week is Carolina, which is catching more than a field goal at home after stunning the Chargers as underdogs a week ago.
The Panthers have drawn 25 times as much money as the Cardinals as of Friday and are priced at +3.5 (-120) entering the weekend, enticing bettors to take the hook on the road favorite. Public bettors are buying it, placing twice as many tickets on Arizona despite the money advantage to Carolina.
If trends continue, those public bettors could be in for a treat. The Panthers had lost seven straight games against the spread before last week's outright win against Los Angeles.
New Orleans Saints (-3, 54.5) at Detroit Lions
The Saints have struggled without top receiver Michael Thomas, losing both games in his absence. Bettors don't seem discouraged ahead of Sunday's matchup with the lowly Lions, though.
As of Friday afternoon, New Orleans had drawn roughly 16 times as much money in straights and was among the most-bet teams in parlays. That was before the official news that Thomas would miss this week, which came just before the line moved from 4.
Still, public bettors could push this line closer to 3.5 or 4 by game time given the early parlay activity, even with Thomas sidelined. The Saints have covered 11 of their last 15 as road favorites, while the Lions have lost 14 of their last 21 ATS as a home underdog.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.