Buccaneers-Bears betting trends and player props
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A pair of 3-1 teams face off Thursday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 44) take on the Chicago Bears, who are looking for an offensive spark after their first loss on Sunday. Can they find it against an opportunistic Buccaneers defense?
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Thursday night's contest.
Betting trends
Tom Brady is undefeated in his career against the Bears - boasting a 5-0 record straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread - and he's in a solid spot for this one. Brady is 18-11-2 ATS as a road favorite since 2016, while the under is a stellar 21-9-1 in those games.
He's also worth betting following Sunday's strong showing. Since 2014, the former Patriots quarterback is 14-4 ATS (17-1 SU) when his team scores 38 points in the previous game. He's also covered 10 of his last 13 after a 350-yard passing game or better, and he's 23-11-1 in his last 35 games after tossing at least three touchdown passes.
The trends aren't as optimistic on the other side. Nick Foles is 3-9 ATS in his career as a home 'dog, and he's 3-9 ATS in his last 12 games after he throws fewer than 250 years in the previous matchup. The under is 8-4 through those 18 contests.
Don't overlook the Thursday night effect, either - Brady and Foles are both 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in prime time, though Brady is 8-4-1 ATS in his career on Thursday night. Road favorites have also gone 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 tries on Thursday.
Player props
Nick Foles passing yards under 251.5 yards (-115)
Even if you're optimistic about Foles, this number is too high. The Bears field general has thrown for fewer than 250 yards in 23 of his last 30 regular-season starts and has fallen short of that mark in both appearances this year. He's thrown under 250 yards in 34 career regular-season games (min. five attempts) but has only topped 250 yards the following week just eight times.
The Bucs have held opposing signal-callers below this yardage total in six of their last nine, dating back to last season - despite their tendency toward shoot-outs in recent years - and their pass defense ranks fourth in DVOA in 2020. Take advantage of a bad number on a shaky QB.
Mike Evans to score a touchdown (-106)
Tampa Bay is running out of healthy receivers. With a short turnaround this week, the Bucs practiced Tuesday without Evans, Chris Godwin, Scott Miller, or Justin Watson. Godwin will probably be out Thursday, but Evans did play through his injury Sunday and had even closed the first half with a touchdown.
Evans' fifth score this year also marked his fifth consecutive game with a touchdown. Brady should be looking the 27-year-old's way even more with Godwin likely sidelined - if the seventh-year receiver can fight through the pain once again.
Best bet
Under 44
The NFL is in the midst of a scoring boom, but don't expect that to carry into this contest. The Buccaneers' offense is banged up, but the defensive unit has performed at an elite level early on and should be able to corral a Bears offense that put up just 11 points a week ago. If Chicago's defense plays up to its standard from the first four weeks, this game will remain well under the total.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.