NFL Week 5 best bets: Bolts, Jags are dangerous 'dogs

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I went 2-0-1 last week in my NFL best bets debut, and the two wins weren't particularly close. Here are our best bets for Week 5:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6, 54.5)

I pounced on the Jaguars +6.5 when it was first released early this week. Since then, the Texans have fired their head coach and promoted Romeo Crennel, who is 7-16 against the spread in his last 23 games and presided over the league's sixth-worst scoring defense through the first four contests.

And yet, this line miraculously stayed at 6.5 all week before shorting to 6 on Friday, even though the Jaguars might actually be the better team. They rank higher than the Texans in DVOA (No. 15 to No. 21) and PFF grades (No. 17 to No. 23), and while Houston has played a tougher schedule, it hasn't looked particularly impressive doing so.

Teams introducing a new coach midseason are 13-23 ATS over the last 20 years; the Texans will be fortunate to win this one outright.

Pick: Jaguars +6

Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51)

The Saints are easily my favorite team to fade on a week-to-week basis. They were outplayed by the Buccaneers in Week 1 outside of two big plays in their favor, and they subsequently lost two straight as favorites before needing to erase a 14-point deficit against a lackluster Lions team.

Now New Orleans faces a surging Chargers squad that nearly beat the Bucs and Chiefs outright and have looked sharp with Justin Herbert at the helm. The Saints have had one of the least-reliable secondaries through four weeks, and their offense looked lost before exploding on a Detroit defense even worse than their own.

It's hard to imagine New Orleans' offense mustering enough firepower to win by more than a touchdown if Michael Thomas misses another week. And even if he plays, this Chargers secondary is equipped to stop him, and their offense should provide just enough to stay within this number.

Pick: Chargers +7.5

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 57)

If you aren't targeting at least one high total for your betting portfolio each week, you're missing out. Since 2019, the over is 12-5-4 when the total is at least 53, and totals of at least 57 have gone 21-8-1 to the over since 2000.

This week, I'm targeting the sky-high total for the Seahawks, who are 21-9-1 to the over in their last 31 games and 10-2-1 in their last 13 with a total of 49 or more. Their offense has dropped 31 points or more in all four contests this season, and their historically bad secondary will be without Jamal Adams on Sunday.

The Vikings' pass defense hasn't been much better, though their offense has come alive with consecutive showings of at least 30 points. Expect fireworks between these two in prime time.

Pick: Over 57

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.