NFL Week 5 Pros vs Joes: Sharps fading Falcons as favorites
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Before you make your NFL bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which side other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.
We talked to Craig Sasamura, Bet.Works' head of trading, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing a busy Week 5 slate.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 54)
After four straight losses in embarrassing fashion, the Falcons have become the biggest target for bettors to fade in Week 5.
Wiseguys are lining up on the Panthers, who opened as 3.5-point underdogs but are getting just 1.5 points as of Saturday. Sharps also bought their moneyline down from +155 to -105, and they've laid 10 times as much money on Carolina against the spread with a 3-to-1 advantage in bet slips for the road 'dog.
"We’re really going to need the Falcons there," Sasamura said.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, 54)
Somewhat surprisingly, sharps are also backing the Cowboys this week after a lackluster performance in each of their last four games.
Dallas is pulling 20 times as much money ATS despite drawing just 60% of tickets entering the weekend. Curiously, the line actually moved against the Cowboys, who opened as 9-point favorites and briefly touched -10 before some buy-back on the Giants.
The key number could have played a role in some of that offsetting money, as well as the announcement that star tackle Tyron Smith will miss the rest of the season with a neck injury. That news came out Friday, right before the line moved against Dallas.
“That may have played a factor in them taking back a little bit," Sasamura said.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12, 55.5)
Four weeks of high totals and record scoring have many bettors blindly betting the over heading into Week 5. But one contest is drawing plenty of attention from under bettors even with two high-powered offenses in play.
The Chiefs-Raiders game opened at 59.5, which was the highest number on the board and would have been one of the highest totals in NFL history. Sharps immediately pounced, betting it at every interval from 59.5 down to 55.5.
"If there is a key number in totals, 56 is about as key of a number as you can get," Sasamura. "And they still went under."
The under drew five times as many tickets and 10 times as much money heading into the weekend, though Sasamura didn't expect it to drop any lower than 55.5.
“At some point, they’ve got to think about buying back on the over," he said.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51)
Another notable total this week is on Monday night, where the under is again the flavor of choice on a high total.
The Saints have gone over in all four games this year and scored a season-high 35 points last week without Michael Thomas, who's still uncertain to play Monday night. The Chargers are 3-1 to the under this season, though they blew last week's total out of the water in a shootout with the Buccaneers.
Still, under bettors eye opportunity this week on this number, which would be Los Angeles' highest total in a game since 2018. Bettors went under on 52.5 and 52 with a 3-to-1 advantage in tickets and money, and this total could dip even more if those trends continue into Monday.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.