Should bettors target NFL teams after midseason coaching changes?
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Six weeks into the NFL season, two teams have already replaced their head coaches. The Texans made the first move of the season a week ago, firing Bill O'Brien after their disappointing 0-4 start. The Falcons did the same with Dan Quinn on Sunday after suffering two historic collapses en route to an 0-5 record.
It's the first time multiple teams have replaced their head coaches after the first five weeks since 2008, when the Raiders (1-3) and Rams (0-4) parted ways with Lane Kiffin and Scott Linehan, respectively. Those clubs went a combined 6-18 down the stretch, and neither had a winning record against the spread under a new coach.
The Texans (1-4 ATS) and Falcons (1-4 ATS) have been two of the league's worst bets through five games, though both are led by Pro Bowl quarterbacks and defensively minded interim coaches. Should bettors count on improved results from either club?
New coach, similar results
Since 1989, 45 teams have replaced their head coach before the end of the season. None of them made the playoffs, and only one finished the year with a winning record.
As one might expect, a majority of those teams did improve their straight-up record under a new boss. But it wasn't enough to reward bettors, as those 45 teams went a combined 135-151-6 ATS (47.2%) after making coaching changes. Only 17 of them had winning records ATS after the move, and only one of those 17 made the switch before Week 7.
In fact, none of the teams that made early coaching moves were particularly kind to bettors. Here are the 10 teams since 1989 that replaced their head coaches before Week 7, along with their ATS records before and after the move:
| SEASON | TEAM | ATS BEFORE | ATS AFTER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | Raiders | 1-3 | 6-6 |
| 1991 | Colts | 0-5 | 4-6-1 |
| 1998 | Chargers | 2-3-1 | 3-5-2 |
| 2000 | Bengals | 0-2-1 | 7-6 |
| 2005 | Rams | 1-4 | 4-7 |
| 2008 | Raiders | 2-2 | 5-7 |
| 2008 | Rams | 0-4 | 6-6 |
| 2014 | Raiders | 2-2 | 6-6 |
| 2015 | Dolphins | 1-3 | 4-8 |
| 2019 | Washington | 1-4 | 5-6 |
Though seven of the 10 teams improved their ATS records under a new head coach, only one was above .500 ATS after the move. Those 10 teams also went a combined 50-63-2 ATS (44.2%) - bad enough to turn a profit by blindly betting against them.
Those holding out hope on preseason win total bets for Houston (7.5) and Atlanta (7.5) may want to consider ripping up those tickets. Only one of the 10 teams to replace their coach before Week 7 finished with more than six wins on the season. The five teams to replace their coach after a winless start went a combined 13-67. The best among them finished 4-12.
The most profitable way to play teams with new coaches has been in the totals market. The 10 teams that made early moves went a combined 66-48-2 (57.9%) to the under, and eight of them were profitable to the under after installing a new coach. That could be the product of more conservative game plans or improved discipline; a new head coach will often simplify things for a foundering squad.
Fade teams with new HCs
So how should bettors play the Texans and Falcons for the rest of this season? For one, don't dream too big. Betting them to win the AFC South (+950) and NFC South (+6500), respectively, is likely a fool's errand, as is sweating out either team's preseason win total.
Playing any trend without context is risky, though blindly betting against teams with new coaches has been profitable for three decades, especially when a move comes early in the year. We can also expect teams that make in-season coaching changes to play some low-scoring games, as we saw last week when Houston posted its first under in three weeks.
The primary takeaway: The market tends to exaggerate the significance of a new coach. Most teams improve after making a switch, but not enough to reward bettors banking on a major turnaround. When it comes to the Texans and Falcons, don't bet on new leadership solving old problems.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.