NFL bad line of the week: The Titans will return to earth
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We nailed our bad line of the week this past Sunday with the Bears (+2.5) winning outright over the Panthers. Let's keep the momentum rolling into Week 7.
Here's the oddsboard, as well as one spread that looks fishy.
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| Giants @ Eagles | PHI -6.5 |
| Panthers @ Saints | NO -7.5 |
| Browns @ Bengals | CLE -3 |
| Packers @ Texans | GB -3.5 |
| Steelers @ Titans | PIT -1.5 |
| Lions @ Falcons | ATL -3 |
| Bills @ Jets | BUF -11.5 |
| Cowboys @ Washington | DAL -3 |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | SEA -3.5 |
| 49ers @ Patriots | NE -3 |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | KC -9.5 |
| Jaguars @ Chargers | LAC -8 |
| Buccaneers @ Raiders | TB -3 |
| Bears @ Rams | LAR -5.5 |
Bad line of the week: Steelers -1.5 vs. Titans
The Steelers were listed as 1.5-point favorites over the Titans when the markets opened up in Week 4. With these two slated to make up the postponement three weeks later, the line hasn't budged despite some intriguing underlying statistics. I will gladly take a discounted -1.5 on Pittsburgh against a Tennessee club that could unravel at any point.
Let's start with Tennessee. The offense just hung 600-plus yards and 42 points in a win over the Texans to remain perfect. Expect regression after the team averaged close to nine yards per play, but the Titans have also lucked out in a couple other areas.
Heading into Week 7, Tennessee's tied for the league lead in turnover margin at plus-6. Timely takeaways have certainly masked other flaws, including a neutral clip in net yards per play. In other words, Tennessee is giving up just as many yards per play as its gaining. Last week's game against the Texans was the first time all year that the Titans won the yards-per-play battle. To say they're lucky to be 5-0 would be an understatement.
The Titans' strength of schedule is also a reason to fade them here. The overall combined record of their opponents so far is 9-19, yet Tennessee is still struggling to outgain its competition.
The Steelers have also benefited from a relatively weak schedule so far, but unlike the Titans, they're not due to come back down to earth. Pittsburgh has been dominant in 2020, ranking No. 2 in point differential, No. 1 in DVOA rush defense, and No. 9 in pass DVOA offense. I'm hardly worried about the Steelers moving forward, as they've passed most, if not all of their tests with flying colors.
We're getting a cheap number on the Steelers here. I think we'll look back on this one shortly and wonder why the number wasn't higher.
Pick: Steelers -1.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.